Research Article
Open access
Published on 28 March 2024
Download pdf
Ran,Y.;Thananchana,A. (2024). The Influencing Factors of Exports of Sichuan under the Belt and Road Initiative: An Empirical Study Based on the Extended Trade Gravity Model. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,4,1-13.
Export citation

The Influencing Factors of Exports of Sichuan under the Belt and Road Initiative: An Empirical Study Based on the Extended Trade Gravity Model

Yaxian Ran *,1, Annop Thananchana 2
  • 1 Chiang Mai University
  • 2 Chiang Mai University

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

https://doi.org/10.54254/2977-5701/4/2024019

Abstract

This study investigates the influencing factors of exports in Sichuan Province in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the panel data of Sichuan's exports to fifty-three countries along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2022, this study tests eleven potential influencing factors using an expanded trade gravity model. And the results show that the economic development level of both Sichuan and the Belt and Road member countries have significant positive correlation with the export volume; while the distance, foreign merchant participation in Sichuan, exchange rate of RMB and human capital level of Sichuan are significantly negative. Moreover, the trade potential coefficient of each Belt and Road member country is calculated to decide the trade type. Lastly, the c onclusions and strategical suggestions are put up to further explore the trade potential with Belt and Road countries and expand Sichuan’s export volume.

Keywords

expanded trade gravity model, exports, foreign trade, Belt and Road Initiative; trade potential coefficient

[1]. Ai, S. (2021). Analysis of the new pattern of China’s foreign trade development under the background of the Belt and Road. Prices Monthly (Jiage Yuekan), 11, 58–63.

[2]. Anderson, J. (1979). A theoretical foundation for gravity equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.

[3]. Central People's Government of China. (2023, January 13). In 2022, China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 7.7%, and the total value exceeded 40 trillion yuan. https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-01/13/content_5736830.htm

[4]. Chen, H. (2011). An empirical analysis of factors affecting the export of the high-tech products ——Based on the data of 14 provinces. The World of Survey and Research(Diaoyan Shijie), 3, 37–39.

[5]. Chen, B. (2023, January 16). Sichuan's foreign trade reached 1007.67 trillion yuan. Sichuan Daily. https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-01/16/content_5737192.htm

[6]. Dai, X., & Yang, S. (2020). Foreign trade promotion effect of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. Economist (Jingji Xuejia), 6, 68–76.

[7]. De Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., & Ruta, M. (2019). Common transport infrastructure: a quantitative model and estimates from the belt and road initiative. Policy Research Working Paper Series.

[8]. Deng, X., Zhu, H., Lu, Z., & Liu, X. (2017). The analysis of the integration of inland areas into the "Belt and Road" -- A case study of the "Europe-Chengdu +" strategy. Journal of Southwest Minzu University (Xinan Minzu Daxue Xuebao), 38(5), 121-125.

[9]. Dong, X., & Xiao, S. (2005). The quantitative analysis of effecting factors of exports of three eastern areas —— On Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang. International Economics and Trade Research (Guoji Jingmao Tansuo), 21(3), 4–7.

[10]. Fang, Y., & Ma, R. (2018). Potential and influencing factors of cultural trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road: An empirical study based on stochastic frontier gravity model. World Economy Studies (Shijie Jingji Yanjiu), 1, 112-121+136.

[11]. Herrero, A., & Xu, J. (2017). China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe expect trade Gains? China & World Economy, 25(6), 84–99.

[12]. Huang, Y. (2016). Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review, 40, 314-321.

[13]. Huo, W. (2018). One belt, one road, Sichuan starts again, the future direction of Sichuan. Sichuan Provincial Conditions(Sichuan Shengqing), 7, 25–28.

[14]. Ji, W., & Ren, W. (2020). Influencing factors and trade potentials of sports goods export between China and the countries along "Belt and Road": A test based on the extended trade gravity model. Journal of Shanghai University of Sports (Shanghai Tiyu Xueyuan Xuebao), 44(4), 70–77.

[15]. Kong, Q., Chen, A., Shen, C., & Wong, Z. (2021). Has the belt and road initiative improved the quality of economic growth in china's cities? International Review of Economics & Finance, 76, 870-883.

[16]. Li, J., & Qiu, J. (2017). Research on China's export potential to APEC members and its influencing factors: An empirical test based on trade gravity model. Asia-pacific Economic Review (Yatai Jingji), 6, 5–13.

[17]. Li, S., & Wu, Y. (2018). The development strategy of cross-border E-commerce in Quanzhou area under the "One Belt and One Road" strategy. Proceedings of the 2018 1st International Conference on Internet and E-Business, 13–15.

[18]. Liu, Q., & Jiang, S. (2002). China's bilateral trade arrangement from the perspective of trade gravity model. Zhejiang Social Sciences (Zhejiang Shehui Kexue), 6, 17-20.

[19]. Lo, C. (2015). China’s silk road strategy. The International Economy, 29(4), 54–55.

[20]. Melecky, M., Roberts, M., & Sharma, S. (2019). The wider economic benefits of transport corridors: a policy framework and illustrative application to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 12(1), 17–44.

[21]. Nugent, J., & Lu, J. (2021). China's outward foreign direct investment in the belt and road initiative: what are the motives for Chinese firms to invest? China Economic Review, 68

[22]. Poyhonen, P. (1963). A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschafliches Archive, 90 (1), 93-100.

[23]. Rolland, N. (2017). China's “Belt and Road Initiative”: underwhelming or game-changer? Washington Quart, 40 (1), 127–142.

[24]. Shao, J. (2017). The influencing factors of china’s service exports to high-income economies: An empirical study using gravity model and random-effect panel data model. Economic Survey (Jingji Jingwei), 34 (1), 69–74.

[25]. Shi, W. (2008). China's bilateral trade arrangement from the perspective of trade gravity model. Market Modernization, 14, 354-355.

[26]. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy, Appendix VI: An Analysis of World Trade Flows. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund.

[27]. Wang, J. (2007). An empirical analysis of the factors influencing the export of Xinjiang. HLJ Foreign Economic Relations&Trade(Heilongjiang Duiwai JIngmao), 5, 48–49.

[28]. Wang, J., & Qu, L. (2022). The impact of the "Belt and Road" construction on the exports between China and countries along the routes. Times of Economy & Trade (Shidai Jingmao), 19 (10), 71–76.

[29]. Wang, M., Qiu, Q., & Choi, C. (2019). How will the Belt and Road initiative advance China’s exports? Asia Pacific Business Review, 25 (1), 81–99.

[30]. Wang, R. (2011). Study on the correlation between foreign direct investment and import and export trade in Sichuan Province. Economic Research Guide (Jingji Yanjiu Daokan), 7, 189-190.

[31]. Wu, X., & Xiang, M. (2019). The empirical analysis on the influence of “Belt and Road” strategy on the development of small and medium-sized processing trade enterprises in Chengdu. Journal of Chengdu Technological University (Chengdu Gongye Xueyuan Xuebao), 22 (1), 82-89.

[32]. Yao, L. (1998). Empirical analysis of influencing factors of China's foreign trade. Statistical Research (Tongji Yanjiu), 5, 26–30.

[33]. Ye, Y., & Song, J. (2023, April 26). Run! Towards the dazzling light of the "Belt and Road", towards the bright future of more than 130 cities. Chengdu Commercial Daily, https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1764227402521359451&wfr=spider&for=pc

[34]. Yu, J., & Ge, C. (2023). Trade facilitation and domestic value - Added rates of Exports: Empirical analysis based on countries along the Belt and Road. Finance and Trade Research (Caimao Yanjiu), 34 (2), 26-40.

[35]. Zheng, Y., & Ju, L. (2007). Theoretical and empirical analysis of the influencing factors of foreign trade export in Shandong Province. Shandong Social Sciences (Shandong Shehui Kexue), 5 (5), 128–132.

[36]. Zhou, K., Kumar, S., Lu, F., Fang, Q., & Yu, L. (2022). Has the Belt and Road Initiative improved the quality of food imported by Chinese enterprises? China & World Economy, 30(2), 60–83.

Cite this article

Ran,Y.;Thananchana,A. (2024). The Influencing Factors of Exports of Sichuan under the Belt and Road Initiative: An Empirical Study Based on the Extended Trade Gravity Model. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,4,1-13.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

Disclaimer/Publisher's Note

The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s). EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.

About volume

Journal:Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies

Volume number: Vol.4
ISSN:2977-5701(Print) / 2977-571X(Online)

© 2024 by the author(s). Licensee EWA Publishing, Oxford, UK. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open access policy for details).