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Analysis and Prediction of Coupled Coordination Development between Ecological Environment and Tourism Economy in the Pearl River Basin
- 1 Guilin University of Technology
- 2 Guilin University of Technology
- 3 Guilin University of Technology
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The tourism economy and ecological environment constitute a structurally complex interactive coupled open system, and correctly understanding and handling the relationship between them is key to sustainable development. Based on data from six provinces in the Pearl River Basin from 2018 to 2020, this study explores the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of the tourism economy and ecological environment systems in the Pearl River Basin and predicts the coupling coordination degree for the next three years using a coupled coordination model and a grey G.M(1,1) prediction model. The results indicate that the comprehensive level of the two systems is declining overall, with significant spatial differentiation. The evaluation index of the tourism economy can be divided into two stages, with an overall upward trend from 2018 to 2019 and a downward trend in 2020, showing an east-high and west-low spatial distribution pattern. The ecological environment exhibits various trend changes such as V-shaped, inverted V-shaped, and increasing trends, with the lagging system mainly in the form of tourism lag. Most provinces are in a high-level coupling stage, with the coupling coordination degree showing a downward trend and the coordination level not high, presenting a spatial distribution pattern of “high downstream, low upstream.” In the coming years, the coupling coordination degree of most provinces in the Pearl River Basin will slowly rise, but it will take a long time to achieve an upward shift in coordination level.
Keywords
Pearl River Basin, coupled coordination, tourism economy, ecological environment, G.M (1,1)
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Cite this article
Mei,X.;Liang,Z.;Liu,M. (2024). Analysis and Prediction of Coupled Coordination Development between Ecological Environment and Tourism Economy in the Pearl River Basin. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,5,29-39.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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