Volume 18 Issue 3
Published on April 2025Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by commercial banks. Credit risk management includes risk identification, assessment, and early warning, among which risk assessment is fundamental and key. Currently, research on credit risk assessment in China is still in its developing stage, and the precision of measuring credit risk needs improvement. Among various evaluation methods, the KMV model has shown good practical application and is relatively suitable for the national conditions of China. However, it still has some flaws. To address the issue of insufficient external validity in the default point parameter settings of the KMV model, the PSO algorithm is used to optimize these parameters, and the PSO-GWO algorithm is integrated to construct the APSO-KMV model and the PSO-GWO-KMV model. Based on an empirical study comparing real data from 5,234 companies, it was found that the original KMV model had an AUC value of 0.7362, accuracy of 0.2610, and binary cross-entropy loss of 0.7006; the PSO-KMV model had a short-term debt coefficient α of 0.0496, a long-term debt coefficient β of 0.2508, an AUC value of 0.9994, accuracy of 0.9996, and binary cross-entropy loss of 4.1990; the PSO-GWO-KMV model had a coefficient α of 0.0496 and a value β of 0.2690, an AUC value of 0.9987, accuracy of 0.7603, and binary cross-entropy loss of 4.0804. The optimized KMV model showed a significant improvement in predictive accuracy.
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With the increasing severity of global climate change and environmental pollution, green investment is gradually becoming a key component of economic development strategies in various countries. This study focuses on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), using a fixed-effects model to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which green investment, economic development, urbanization, and fiscal scale affect environmental pollution. The findings reveal that green investment significantly reduces environmental pollution levels, economic development and urbanization contribute positively to environmental quality improvement, while fiscal scale has varying regional impacts on the environment. This research further refines the theory of green finance and provides important references for promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and environment.
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The emergence of large language models has catalyzed unprecedented interest in artificial intelligence applications. Intelligent assistants, as exemplary implementations of this technology, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, leading to their increasing adoption as a primary mode of human-machine interaction for task completion. However, the underlying mechanisms governing user interactions with these intelligent assistants warrant further investigation. This study examines the human-machine interaction process through the lens of knowledge co-creation, grounded in sense-making theory. We developed an intelligent assistant platform to collect interaction data from 316 users and conducted grounded theory research, incorporating third-party materials, to construct a comprehensive model of human-machine collaborative knowledge co-creation. The model was subsequently validated through quantitative empirical research. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) human-machine collaboration serves as a critical mediator in facilitating knowledge co-creation; (2) both individual and machine knowledge capabilities significantly contribute to achieving optimal human-machine synergy; and (3) users' prompt literacy exhibits a significant positive moderating effect on human-machine collaboration. This research makes two primary contributions: it elucidates the fundamental mechanisms underlying human-intelligent assistant interaction from a knowledge co-creation perspective, and it establishes a theoretical foundation for scaling human-machine knowledge co-creation research to organizational and industrial contexts.
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This paper explores the definition, significance, opportunities, and challenges of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing, supported by real-life examples. ESG investing not only promotes corporate sustainability but also facilitates effective risk management, as demonstrated by the case of APG Asset Management, which reduces investment risks through climate risk assessments. The opportunities of ESG investing lie in stimulating corporate innovation and enhancing brand value. However, it also faces challenges such as fragmented data, inconsistent rating standards, and corporate greenwashing, exemplified by Tesla’s greenwashing incident in 2022. To overcome these challenges, concerted efforts from companies, investors, government regulators, and rating agencies are needed. These include companies genuinely practicing ESG principles, investors focusing on sustainability, governments expediting clear regulations, and rating agencies improving data quality and transparency. Despite numerous difficulties, the future of ESG investing is promising, with the ultimate goal of achieving a win-win situation for corporate health and environmental improvement.
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With the rapid development of social e-commerce, grass-planting short videos have become an important tool for reshaping consumers' decision-making processes. This study explores how the characteristics of entertainment and emotional resonance of such short videos influence consumers' purchase intention through psychological mechanisms. By integrating the Stimulus Organism Response (SOR) model and the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), a dual-path mediation framework is proposed. Data were collected via a questionnaire survey (N=106) from active users of TikTok, Kuaishou, and Xiaohongshu. Structural equation modeling and regression analysis indicate that entertainment enhances purchase intention through perceived pleasure and peripheral route processing (such as creative interactions), while emotional resonance promotes rational decision-making through perceived usefulness and central route processing (such as product comparison). The research findings offer theoretical insights into the psychological mechanisms of short video marketing and provide practical strategies for optimizing content creation and algorithmic recommendations.
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With the deepening of aging, the number of disabled elderlies in China is increasing, and the demand for long-term care services is becoming increasingly prominent. In this context, the government has carried out the pilot work of the public long-term care insurance system. This paper summarizes the literature on the effect evaluation of long-term care insurance system, and concludes that long-term care insurance improves the quality of life of the disabled elderly, and may reduce the utilization of medical services and medical consumption expenditure. In addition, the system can also reduce the burden of caregivers and increase their labor participation. However, the current system also has some problems, such as narrow coverage, poor quality of nursing services and high dependence on the social medical insurance fund, which still need to be continuously optimized and improved.
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In recent years, the phenomenon of young consumer groups' addiction to trendy toy products has garnered significant attention. This paper analyzes the addictive behaviors of young consumer groups in trendy toy consumption by applying behavioral economics theories and research methods, combining real-life interview cases and textual analysis. It identifies reference dependence, obsession with small probability events, the sunk-cost effect, and the ambiguity of metal accounting as the primary reasons leading to the addiction of young consumer groups to trendy toys. The paper also examines the mechanisms behind these behaviors. To help young consumer groups establish rational consumption concepts and promote the sustainable development of the trendy toy industry, five suggestions are proposed from the perspectives of comprehensive governance and co-construction, focusing on three aspects: consumers themselves, the government and society, and the trendy toy industry. This research not only enriches and expands the depth and breadth of academic research in theory and practice but also provides reference value for industry development and decision-making by related enterprises. Furthermore, it strengthens the theoretical foundation and offers practical insights for the healthy development of the trendy toy industry.
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In an era of accelerating globalization, the international community faces numerous challenges. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. This initiative aims to provide more development opportunities for all parties involved through consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits, promoting economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, and political trust among them. It also injects new vitality into the regional international economic development. This paper analyzes the achievements of the BRI since its implementation based on relevant professional literature. It also examines the problems encountered during its implementation and elaborate on its significance as a national development strategy in light of current international realities. The trend towards international integration is inevitable, and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind is based on the profound reality of global development. During the low tide of economic development, some countries set up trade barriers and promote economic protectionism to divert public attention and shift the economic crisis. Amid the prevalence of economic protectionism, the consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits philosophy advocated by the Belt and Road initiative has shown vigorous vitality. The active participation, deepening cooperation, and joint development of countries along the route demonstrate that the trend of global integration has taken root in people's hearts.
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The development of the digital economy has injected new momentum into enterprise innovation. The digital governance capabilities of supply chain partners—such as customers—play a significant role in influencing suppliers' innovation decisions and their resulting outcomes, warranting close attention. This study employs text mining techniques to construct an index system for measuring corporate digital governance capabilities, and further investigates how customer firms' digital governance capabilities affect the innovation activities of supplier firms. The findings confirm the existence of a spillover effect in the supply chain: customers' digital governance capabilities significantly enhance the innovation performance of upstream supplier firms. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the impact is more pronounced when suppliers are state-owned or innovation-driven enterprises. These conclusions remain robust after addressing endogeneity issues using propensity score matching. By examining the source of innovation performance improvement from the customer enterprise perspective, this study provides important insights for supply chain firms aiming to leverage customers' digital governance capabilities as a developmental opportunity.
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This study is based on the "3+X" characteristic industry development practices in Quzhou City, and systematically analyzes the current situation and issues in rural agricultural industry development. Through measures such as constructing a full industrial chain development system, implementing a digital empowerment project, and innovating industry integration models, this study summarizes a characteristic development path led by the three major industries of pomelo, camellia, and tea. The research reveals existing bottlenecks such as insufficient industrial scale benefits, inadequate integration depth, and limited market expansion. Targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed, including strengthening factor guarantees, deepening industrial integration, and improving talent cultivation, which provide practical reference for rural characteristic industry development in similar regions.
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