
Constructing the Evolution of International Factors on War Model with a Comparative Political Perspective—Taking the War in Ukraine as an Example
- 1 University College London
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
In terms of the state of Europe, Michael E. O’Hanlon believes that even if the war in Ukraine ends soon, the events so far have changed the security environment in Europe. The tripwire strategy NATO has used in the Baltic states and Poland since about 2017 must now be replaced by a permanent forward defense posture of modest size and scope. Starting with two external factors, aid and sanctions, this paper uses a comparative political science approach to construct a military and economic model of the Russo-Ukrainian war by September 2022. This paper finds that Ukraine is constrained by its strength and weapons in the face of advanced operational command concepts and cannot effectively stop Russia. This ideological difference has led to a failure to achieve a balanced model of war, while at the same time, we note that all sides are also managing the risk of war escalation. The lack of planning for economic sanctions against Russia and the vacillating attitudes of the West, including the US, make the course of the war and subsequent reconstruction far from certain.
Keywords
evolution, international factors, war model, comparative political perspective, Ukraine
[1]. BBC, Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion, 2022.8.16,2022.8.29, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-605066828
[2]. Russia’s economy appears to be back on track. The Economist, June 10 2022 (Updated June 15 2022).
[3]. Kyiv School of Economics, Direct damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure during the war has reached over $94 billion (2022)
[4]. Andis Kudors, TEN YEARS IN THE EURO-ATLANTIC COMMUNITY: RIGA CONFERENCE PAPERS 2014
[5]. Michael E. O’Hanlon Tuesday, June 21, 2022, Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, American statesman and former Brookings Institution President Strobe Talbot
[6]. HIDALGO GARCÍA, Mar. The war in Ukraine: further stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest. IEEE Analysis Paper 4/5/2022.
[7]. PARDO DE SANTAYANA, José. From Ukraine to Taiwan: Learning to live in a worse world. IEEE Analysis Paper 2/8/2022.
[8]. Richard D. Hooker, Climbing the ladder: How the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond, 4/2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/managing-escalation-in-ukraine/
[9]. Guijuan Lin, Higher Education Research Methodology-Literature Method, Xiamen Software College
[10]. Macionis, John (1944–2011). Sociology. Gerber, Linda Marie (7th ed.). Toronto, Canada: Pearson Prentice Hall. ISBN 9780137001613.
[11]. Alexander Vasilevsky The Case of All My Life (Дело всей жизни). 3d ed. Политиздат, 1978 Chapter8 Archived 2007-09-29 at the Wayback Machine (in Russian)
[12]. Russia has deployed nearly 200,000 troops near Ukrainian border: US, BY AGENCIES, ISTANBUL 18.2.2022, 27.8.2022
[13]. Belarusian military could ‘soon’ join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say By Natasha Bertrand, Vasco Cotovio, Jennifer Hansler and Jim Sciutto, CNN Updated March 22, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/belarus-ukraine/index.html
[14]. The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 18.00 on April 30, 2022, Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, posted April 30 2022 19:00
[15]. Joe Varner: It’s been one month since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Here’s where we stand, March 28, 2022,29.8.2022, https://thehub.ca/2022-03-28/the-state-of-the-russian-ukrainian-war-one-month-in/
[16]. Invaders forcibly take 13 orphans out of Mariupol to Russia, ukrinform,18.04.2022,1.9.2022, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3460886-invaders-forcibly-take-13-orphans-out-of-mariupol-to-russia.html
[17]. Role of Airborne Troops in Russia’s Military Buildup in Crimea Publication: Eurasia Daily, Jörgen Elfving, May 3.2022,2.9.2022, https://jamestown.org/program/role-of-airborne-troops-in-russias-military-buildup-in-crimea/
[18]. “Ukraine’s War with Russia: The Situation in Kharkiv”. February 24 2022.
[19]. Ukraine-Russia: Hidden tech war as Slovyansk battle looms,By Jonathan Beale,BBC, Published, July 8, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62090791
[20]. Mariupol: Key moments in the siege of the city,BBC,Published, May 17 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61179093
[21]. Fact Sheet on US Security Assistance for Ukraine, white house, MARCH 16, 2022,2,9,2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
[22]. Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals, independent, June 9 2022,3.9.2022, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html
[23]. U.S.-Provided HIMARS Effective in Ukraine JULY 15, 2022 | BY C. TODD LOPEZ, DOD NEWS, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3095394/us-provided-himars-effective-in-ukraine/
[24]. US releases $270 mn in military aid to Ukraine including rocket systems, france24,23/07/2022 ,3.9.2022, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220722-us-releases-270-mn-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-including-rocket-systems
[25]. Pentagon Announces Classified JADC2 Implementation Plan, Unclassified Strategy, March 21, 2022 | By Greg Hadley, https://www.airforcemag.com/pentagon-announces-classified-jadc2-implementation-plan-unclassified-strategy/
[26]. What are the sanctions on Russia and are they hurting its economy?BBC,Published, June 27, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
[27]. Russian economy contracts under pressure from sanctions,BY PAOLA TAMMA, AUGUST 12, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-economy-to-contract-under-pressure-from-sanctions-central-bank-forecasts/
[28]. Russia’s war on Ukraine: Impact on food security and EU response, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729367/EPRS_ATA(2022)729367_EN.pdf
[29]. Financial assistance to Ukraine can’t wait,BY LUIS GARICANO,AUGUST 18, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/financial-assistance-west-eu-ukraine-russia-war/
[30]. Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri,March 10, 2022,The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects
[31]. June 16, 2022, Dave Lawler, author of Axios World,Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says, https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia
[32]. Tim Sweijs and Mattia Bertolini,May 2022,War terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine War,The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The Associated Press,July 6, 2022,High cost of Russian gains in Ukraine may limit new advance,https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/high-cost-of-russian-gains-in-ukraine-may-limit-new-advance-1.5974461
[33]. Robert E. Litan, March 17, 2022Russia can be made to pay for Ukraine damage now,https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/russia-can-be-made-to-pay-for-ukraine-damage-now/
[34]. Robert J. Moore,” Emerging from war: Public policy and patterns of foreign direct investment recovery in postwar environments,” Journal of International Business Policy 4 (2021): 455–475
Cite this article
Ding,F. (2023). Constructing the Evolution of International Factors on War Model with a Comparative Political Perspective—Taking the War in Ukraine as an Example. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,14,56-64.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
Disclaimer/Publisher's Note
The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s). EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.
About volume
Volume title: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies
© 2024 by the author(s). Licensee EWA Publishing, Oxford, UK. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. Authors who
publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this
series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published
version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial
publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and
during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See
Open access policy for details).