Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model

Research Article
Open access

Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model

Qiyu Jiang 1 , Yitian Tan 2* , Yuxi Wang 3
  • 1 Penn State University Harrisburg    
  • 2 Brandeis University    
  • 3 Xi’an Jiao Tong Liverpool University    
  • *corresponding author yitiantan@brandeis.edu
Published on 13 September 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/19/20230116
AEMPS Vol.19
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-915371-81-2
ISBN (Online): 978-1-915371-82-9

Abstract

On 7 October 2022, the US government issued a revised policy regarding semiconductor technology export toward China. The 139 pages of rules stated the regulation on export of chips, more specifically, the advanced computer chips that could support AI algorithms. In fact, this is not the first time for US government banning export of high-end computer chips to China, but this one could be the most expensive export restriction within a decade. Chinese chip companies have long suffered from the banning from US government, the development of the whole industry is filled with twists and turns as well, but the thriving of Chinese chip market is still deeply related to the US economy's performance. This paper discovers the correlation between the performance of Chinese chip industry, which is revealed by the index level of chip industry within China's mainland stock market, and the US to RMB exchange rate, starting from 2016 to present. The paper applied ARMA-GARCH model to predict and analyze the data, studying how will US exchange rate affect the development of chip industry in China. It also predicts the development of Chinese chip industry and then makes suggestions for future development of the Chinese chip companies.

Keywords:

exchange rate, stock index, chip industry, China, US.

Jiang,Q.;Tan,Y.;Wang,Y. (2023). Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,19,40-47.
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References

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[5]. Vector autoregressive models: Specification. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/b.9780631215585.1999.00003.x

[6]. Ren, S. et al. (2022) ‘Polarization Domain Spectrum Sensing Algorithm Based on AlexNet’, Sensors (14248220), 22(22), p. 8946. doi:10.3390/s22228946.

[7]. Anderson, S. F. (2020). Misinterpreting p: The discrepancy between p values and the probability the nullhypothesis is true, the influence of multiple testing, and implications for the replication crisis. Psychological Methods, 25(5), 596–609. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1037/met0000248

[8]. Yang, H. et al. (2022) ‘The Dynamic Impacts of Weather Changes on Vegetable Price Fluctuations in Shandong Province, China: An Analysis Based on VAR and TVP-VAR Models’, Agronomy, 12(11), p. 2680. doi:10.3390/agronomy12112680.

[9]. Zhaoyi Zhou (2010) ‘Analysis of Advantages and Disadvantages of the Appreciation of Current Renminbi against US Dollar’, JOURNAL OF JIANGXI FINANCE COLLEGE, 23(4), pp. 42–44.

[10]. Avdjiev, S., Bruno, V., Koch, C., & Shin, H. S. (2019). The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment. IMF Economic Review, 67(1), 151–173. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4

Cite this article

Jiang,Q.;Tan,Y.;Wang,Y. (2023). Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,19,40-47.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development

ISBN：978-1-915371-81-2(Print) / 978-1-915371-82-9(Online)
Editor：Javier Cifuentes-Faura, Canh Thien Dang
Conference website: https://2023.icmred.org/
Conference date: 28 April 2023
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.19
ISSN：2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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References

[1]. General admission of customs P.R. CHINA (2022), Table of main imported commodity volume and value in December 2021 (in US dollars)http://www.customs.gov.cn//customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/4127373/index.html

[2]. IC Insights. (2021). Chinese Companies Hold Only 5% of Global IC Marketshare. https://www.design-reuse.com/news/49792/2020-worldwide-ic-marketshare.html

[3]. Choice Finance. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://www.eastmoney.com/

[4]. Stephanie. (2021). Unit root: Simple definition, unit root tests. Statistics How To. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://www.statisticshowto.com/unit-root/

[5]. Vector autoregressive models: Specification. Retrieved January 4, 2023, from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/b.9780631215585.1999.00003.x

[6]. Ren, S. et al. (2022) ‘Polarization Domain Spectrum Sensing Algorithm Based on AlexNet’, Sensors (14248220), 22(22), p. 8946. doi:10.3390/s22228946.

[7]. Anderson, S. F. (2020). Misinterpreting p: The discrepancy between p values and the probability the nullhypothesis is true, the influence of multiple testing, and implications for the replication crisis. Psychological Methods, 25(5), 596–609. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1037/met0000248

[8]. Yang, H. et al. (2022) ‘The Dynamic Impacts of Weather Changes on Vegetable Price Fluctuations in Shandong Province, China: An Analysis Based on VAR and TVP-VAR Models’, Agronomy, 12(11), p. 2680. doi:10.3390/agronomy12112680.

[9]. Zhaoyi Zhou (2010) ‘Analysis of Advantages and Disadvantages of the Appreciation of Current Renminbi against US Dollar’, JOURNAL OF JIANGXI FINANCE COLLEGE, 23(4), pp. 42–44.

[10]. Avdjiev, S., Bruno, V., Koch, C., & Shin, H. S. (2019). The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment. IMF Economic Review, 67(1), 151–173. https://doi-org.ez.xjtlu.edu.cn/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4

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