A Research of the Historiographical Approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis: Exploring the Impact of Irrational Factors on the Peaceful Ending

Research Article
Open access

A Research of the Historiographical Approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis: Exploring the Impact of Irrational Factors on the Peaceful Ending

Baisen Qiao 1*
  • 1 School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing, China, 100089    
  • *corresponding author 20160067@bfsu.edu.cn
LNEP Vol.4
ISSN (Print): 2753-7056
ISSN (Online): 2753-7048
ISBN (Print): 978-1-915371-33-1
ISBN (Online): 978-1-915371-34-8

Abstract

With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, a new nuclear crisis and violent geopolitical shocks seem to be looming worldwide. At this juncture, reviewing the historical lesson of the Cuban missile crisis appears imperative. The previous studies investigated the causes of the peaceful end of the Cuban missile crisis, but downplaying the role of irrational factors. Based on the analysis of relevant research approaches, numerous primary sources and case study, this paper is bent on the role of irrational factors including emotional variables, contingency and uncontrollable agents during this crisis. The result of this research reveals that irrational factors played a significant role in the peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. The favorable development of some irrational factors (e.g., the choice of frontline soldiers in the “Soviet submarine incident”) due to fortunate or contingency even became crucial in preventing this crisis from degenerating into a nuclear war. This paper can expand the scope of the studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis and provide guidance for preventing nuclear war and instability in the present era. Hence, it is of theoretical and practical value.

Keywords:

Cuban Missile Crisis, Peaceful ending, Irrational factors, Reason analysis

Qiao,B. (2023). A Research of the Historiographical Approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis: Exploring the Impact of Irrational Factors on the Peaceful Ending. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,4,546-553.
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References

[1]. FitzGerald, R. (2007) Historians and the Cuban Missile Crisis: the Evidence–Interpretation Relationship as seen through Differing Interpretations of the Crisis Settlement. Irish studies in international affairs. [Online] 18 (1), 191–203.

[2]. Allison, G. (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, HarperCollins, first edition.

[3]. Zelikow, P. and Allison, G. (1999) Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Longman.

[4]. National Security Council (NSC). (1962) Minutes of the 505th Meeting of the National Security Council. [Online] Available at <https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct20/doc1.html > [Accessed 19 November 2021]

[5]. Tierney, D. (2007) Pearl Harbor in Reverse: Moral Analogies in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of cold war studies. [Online] 9 (3), 49–77.

[6]. Zhang, S. (2012) An Analysis of Khrushchev's motivation and Decision to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba -- written on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the outbreak of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Russian Central Asian and Eastern European Studies (06),57-70+98.

[7]. Cohen, A. (2012) A crisis of character; Cuban Missile Crisis ended peacefully because two leaders resisted hardline pressure. Toronto star. 25–.

[8]. Nathan, J. A. (2012) The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited: Why It Matters Who Blinked. Foreign affairs (New York, N.Y.). 91 (6), pp.163–165

[9]. Voorhees, T. (2020). The Silent Guns of Two Octobers: Kennedy and Khrushchev Play the Double Game. University of Michigan Press.

[10]. Malinovsky, R (1962) Telegram from TROSTNIK (Soviet Defense Minister Rodion Malinovsky) to PAVLOV (General Isa Pliev), October 27, 1962, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive [Online], Available at <https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/117326>.

[11]. Kringlen, E. (1985) The myth of rationality in situations of crisis. Medicine and war, 1(3), 187-194.

[12]. FRUS (1962) Off the Record Meeting on Cuba the White House Washington”, October 16, 1962, 6:30-7:55 p.m., [online], Available at<https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct16/doc3.html>.

[13]. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum (1962) “The Cuban Missile Crisis: An Eyewitness Perspective” [online], Available at<https://www.jfklibrary.org/events-and-awards/forums/past-forums/transcripts/the-cuban-missile-crisis-an-eyewitness-perspective>.

[14]. Liu, C. (2017) Psychological Transmission and Crisis Decision-making: A Study based on the Cuban Missile Crisis, Ph. D. Dissertation, China Foreign Affairs University, 2017.

[15]. Blight, J. (1992) The shattered crystal ball: Fear and learning in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Rowman & Littlefield.

[16]. Winter, D. G. (2013) Khrushchev Visits the Bolshoi: [More Than] a Footnote to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Peace and conflict. [Online] 19 (3), 222–239.

[17]. National Security Council (NSC). President Kennedy's appointments, October 16, 1962[ online], Available at<https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct16/doc2.html >.

[18]. Savranskaya, S. (2005) New Sources on the Role of Soviet Submarines in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of strategic studies. [Online] 28 (2), 233–259.

[19]. Norris, R. and Kristensen, H. (2012) The Cuban Missile Crisis: A nuclear order of battle, October and November 1962. Bulletin of the atomic scientists. [Online] 68 (6), 85–91.

[20]. Natioanl Security Archive. (2002) The submarines of October: U.S. and Soviet Naval Encounters During the Cuban Missile Crisis.”, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book. No. 75. [Online] Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB75/>.

[21]. Ketov, R. A. (2005) The Cuban Missile Crisis as Seen Through a Periscope. Journal of strategic studies. [Online] 28 (2), 217–231.

[22]. Mozgovoi, A. (Translated by Svetlana Savranskaya) (2002) Recollections of Vadim Orlov (USSR Submarine B-59) We Will Sink Them All, But We Will Not Disgrace Our Navy. The Cuban Samba of the Quartet of Foxtrots: Soviet Submarines in the Caribbean Crisis of 1962, The National Security Archive. Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB75/asw-II-16.pdf>.

[23]. De Mesquita, B. (2010) Foreign policy analysis and rational choice models. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies.

[24]. Scott, L. (2022) The essential inevitability of worrying about the bomb: new writing on the Cuban missile crisis. Intelligence & National Security. [Online] 37 (3), 438–463.


Cite this article

Qiao,B. (2023). A Research of the Historiographical Approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis: Exploring the Impact of Irrational Factors on the Peaceful Ending. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,4,546-553.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the International Conference on Interdisciplinary Humanities and Communication Studies (ICIHCS 2022), Part 3

ISBN:978-1-915371-33-1(Print) / 978-1-915371-34-8(Online)
Editor:Muhammad Idrees, Matilde Lafuente-Lechuga
Conference website: https://www.icihcs.org/
Conference date: 18 December 2022
Series: Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media
Volume number: Vol.4
ISSN:2753-7048(Print) / 2753-7056(Online)

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References

[1]. FitzGerald, R. (2007) Historians and the Cuban Missile Crisis: the Evidence–Interpretation Relationship as seen through Differing Interpretations of the Crisis Settlement. Irish studies in international affairs. [Online] 18 (1), 191–203.

[2]. Allison, G. (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, HarperCollins, first edition.

[3]. Zelikow, P. and Allison, G. (1999) Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Longman.

[4]. National Security Council (NSC). (1962) Minutes of the 505th Meeting of the National Security Council. [Online] Available at <https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct20/doc1.html > [Accessed 19 November 2021]

[5]. Tierney, D. (2007) Pearl Harbor in Reverse: Moral Analogies in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of cold war studies. [Online] 9 (3), 49–77.

[6]. Zhang, S. (2012) An Analysis of Khrushchev's motivation and Decision to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba -- written on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the outbreak of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Russian Central Asian and Eastern European Studies (06),57-70+98.

[7]. Cohen, A. (2012) A crisis of character; Cuban Missile Crisis ended peacefully because two leaders resisted hardline pressure. Toronto star. 25–.

[8]. Nathan, J. A. (2012) The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited: Why It Matters Who Blinked. Foreign affairs (New York, N.Y.). 91 (6), pp.163–165

[9]. Voorhees, T. (2020). The Silent Guns of Two Octobers: Kennedy and Khrushchev Play the Double Game. University of Michigan Press.

[10]. Malinovsky, R (1962) Telegram from TROSTNIK (Soviet Defense Minister Rodion Malinovsky) to PAVLOV (General Isa Pliev), October 27, 1962, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive [Online], Available at <https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/117326>.

[11]. Kringlen, E. (1985) The myth of rationality in situations of crisis. Medicine and war, 1(3), 187-194.

[12]. FRUS (1962) Off the Record Meeting on Cuba the White House Washington”, October 16, 1962, 6:30-7:55 p.m., [online], Available at<https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct16/doc3.html>.

[13]. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum (1962) “The Cuban Missile Crisis: An Eyewitness Perspective” [online], Available at<https://www.jfklibrary.org/events-and-awards/forums/past-forums/transcripts/the-cuban-missile-crisis-an-eyewitness-perspective>.

[14]. Liu, C. (2017) Psychological Transmission and Crisis Decision-making: A Study based on the Cuban Missile Crisis, Ph. D. Dissertation, China Foreign Affairs University, 2017.

[15]. Blight, J. (1992) The shattered crystal ball: Fear and learning in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Rowman & Littlefield.

[16]. Winter, D. G. (2013) Khrushchev Visits the Bolshoi: [More Than] a Footnote to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Peace and conflict. [Online] 19 (3), 222–239.

[17]. National Security Council (NSC). President Kennedy's appointments, October 16, 1962[ online], Available at<https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct16/doc2.html >.

[18]. Savranskaya, S. (2005) New Sources on the Role of Soviet Submarines in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of strategic studies. [Online] 28 (2), 233–259.

[19]. Norris, R. and Kristensen, H. (2012) The Cuban Missile Crisis: A nuclear order of battle, October and November 1962. Bulletin of the atomic scientists. [Online] 68 (6), 85–91.

[20]. Natioanl Security Archive. (2002) The submarines of October: U.S. and Soviet Naval Encounters During the Cuban Missile Crisis.”, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book. No. 75. [Online] Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB75/>.

[21]. Ketov, R. A. (2005) The Cuban Missile Crisis as Seen Through a Periscope. Journal of strategic studies. [Online] 28 (2), 217–231.

[22]. Mozgovoi, A. (Translated by Svetlana Savranskaya) (2002) Recollections of Vadim Orlov (USSR Submarine B-59) We Will Sink Them All, But We Will Not Disgrace Our Navy. The Cuban Samba of the Quartet of Foxtrots: Soviet Submarines in the Caribbean Crisis of 1962, The National Security Archive. Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB75/asw-II-16.pdf>.

[23]. De Mesquita, B. (2010) Foreign policy analysis and rational choice models. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies.

[24]. Scott, L. (2022) The essential inevitability of worrying about the bomb: new writing on the Cuban missile crisis. Intelligence & National Security. [Online] 37 (3), 438–463.