Moore's Law: The potential, limits, and breakthroughs

Research Article
Open access

Moore's Law: The potential, limits, and breakthroughs

Fulai Zhu 1* Peiyu Xu 2, Jiahao Zong 3
  • 1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Iowa State University    
  • 2 Department of Electrical and New Energy, China Three Gorges University    
  • 3 Jinqiu College, New Channel    
  • *corresponding author zhufulai9852@gmail.com
Published on 25 September 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2755-2721/10/20230038
ACE Vol.10
ISSN (Print): 2755-273X
ISSN (Online): 2755-2721
ISBN (Print): 978-1-83558-009-7
ISBN (Online): 978-1-83558-010-3

Abstract

Moore's Law is a concept that notes the doubling of the number of transistors on a microchip around every two years, resulting in exponential advancement in computing power and diminishing costs. However, as transistor sizes have approached the physical limits of silicon-based technology, maintaining this pace of growth has become increasingly challenging. As a result, researchers have been exploring alternative solutions, such as System-in-package(SiP), Chiplets, Non-volatile memory, Biocomputing, quantum computing, and photonics. While these technologies are still in the early stages of development, they offer promising solutions to the challenges facing the continued growth of computing power. As we continue to explore new avenues for technological advancement, we may find that Moore's Law continues to hold true in unexpected and exciting ways.

Keywords:

Moore's Law, Sip, Chiplet, Non-volatile memory, Biocomputing, quantum computing, photon-based computing, organic field-effect transistors (OFETs)

Zhu,F.;Xu,P.;Zong,J. (2023). Moore's Law: The potential, limits, and breakthroughs. Applied and Computational Engineering,10,307-315.
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References

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[29]. Organick,Lee, et al.Random access in large-scale DNA data storage[J].NatureBiotechnology, 2018,(36):242–248.

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[34]. Pei, Q., & Yu, G. (2019). Polymer electronics. Science, 363(6427), eaau6970.

[35]. Facchetti, A. (2011). Polymer semiconductor interfaces: from basic science to process engineering. Materials Today, 14(7-8), 354-362.

[36]. Wu, Y., & Bao, Z. (2018). Polymer-based flexible and stretchable electronics using nonconventional materials. Chemical reviews, 118(2), 1130-1188.

Cite this article

Zhu,F.;Xu,P.;Zong,J. (2023). Moore's Law: The potential, limits, and breakthroughs. Applied and Computational Engineering,10,307-315.

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The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Mechatronics and Smart Systems

ISBN：978-1-83558-009-7(Print) / 978-1-83558-010-3(Online)
Editor：Alan Wang, Seyed Ghaffar
Conference website: https://2023.confmss.org/
Conference date: 24 June 2023
Series: Applied and Computational Engineering
Volume number: Vol.10
ISSN：2755-2721(Print) / 2755-273X(Online)

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References

[1]. Keyes, R. (2006). The Impact of Moore’s Law. IEER Solid-States Society Newsletter. 11(3). 25-27. https://doi.org/0.1109/N-SSC.2006.4785857

[2]. Lundstrom, M. (2003). Moore's Law Forever? Science, 299(5604), 210–211. https://doi.org/ 10.1126/science.1079567

[3]. Mack, C. A. (2011). Fifty Years of Moore's law. IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 24(2), 202–207. https://doi.org/10.1109/tsm.2010.2096437

[4]. Meng, L., Xin, N., Hu, C., Sabea, H. A., Zhang, M., Jiang, H., Ji, Y., Jia, C., Yan, Z., Zhang, Q., Gu, L., He, X., Selvanathan, P., Norel, L., Rigaut, S., Guo, H., Meng, S., & Guo, X. (2022). Dual-gated single-molecule field-effect transistors beyond Moore’s Law. Nature Communications, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28999-x

[5]. Schaller, R. R. (1997). Moore's law: Past, present and future. IEEE Spectrum, 34(6), 52–59. https://doi.org/10.1109/6.591665

[6]. Sridhar, Arvind et al. “3D-ICE: Fast Compact Transient Thermal Modeling for 3D ICs with Inter-tier Liquid Cooling.” Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Computer-Aided Design, 2010, EPFL. https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/149790?ln=en. Accessed 4 March 2023.

[7]. Hunter, M., et al. “Special Session: Test Challenges in a Chiplet Marketplace.” 2020 IEEE 38th VLSI Test Symposium, 4 June 2020, IEEE Explore. Accessed 4 March 2023.

[8]. Preskill, J. (2018). Quantum Computing in the NISQ era and beyond. Quantum, 2, 79.

[9]. Computer and Telecommunications. (2011, November 28). Research and development of photonic computer[J]. Retrieved March 5, 2023, from https://d.wanfangdata. com.cn/periodical/gddnydx201111027

[10]. Shalf, J. M., & Leland, R. (2015). Computing beyond moore's law. Computer, 48(12), 14–23. https://doi.org/10.1109/mc.2015.374

[11]. Sui, C. (2022). Semiconductor physics. Electronic Devices, Circuits, and Applications, 35–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80538-8_3

[12]. Rashid, S., Shakeel, R., & Bashir, H. (2016). Moore’s Law Effect on Transistors Evolution. International Journal of Computer Applications Technology and Research, 5(7), 495–499. https://doi.org/10.7753/IJCATR0507.1014

[13]. Waldrop, M. M. (2016). The chips are down for Moore’s law. Nature, 530(7589), 144–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/530144a

[14]. Theis, T. N., & Wong, H.-S. P. (2017). The end of Moore's law: A new beginning for information technology. Computing in Science & Engineering, 19(2), 41–50. https://doi.org/10. 1109/mcse.2017.29

[15]. Courtland, R. (2021, July 29). The status of Moore's law: It's complicated. IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved March 5, 2023, from https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-status-of-moores-law-its-complicated

[16]. Li, Tao, et al. “Chiplet Heterogeneous Integration Technology—Status and Challenges.” Electronics, 9, 4, 2020.

[17]. Tian, Wenchao et al. “Using Chiplet Encapsulation Technology to Achieve Processing-in-Memory Functions.” Micromachines, vol. 13, 2022, p. 1790.

[18]. Chen E et al 2010 Advances and future prospects of spin-transfer torque random access memory IEEE Trans. Magn. 46 1873–8

[19]. Reed, Daniel, et al. “Reinventing High Performance Computing: Challenges and Opportunities.” arXiv, 4 Marc2022. 2203.02544. 2022. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2203.02544. Accessed 4 March, 2022.

[20]. Yu, C.H. “The 3rd Dimension – More Life for Moore’s Law.” 2006 International Microsystems, Package, Assembly Conference Taiwan., IEEE. 20 February 2007. https://ieeexplore.ieee. org/document/4107438. Accessed 4 March 2023.

[21]. Tadayon, P., et al. “Moore’s Law and the Future of Test.” Chip Scale Review, 2021, 1-4.

[22]. Radojicic, Riko. More-than-Moore 2.5D and 3D SiP Integration. Springer, 2017.

[23]. Frazelle, Jessie. “Chipping Away at Moore’s Law.” Queue, 18, 2020, 5-15.

[24]. Wisetronic. (2016, December 1). Breakthrough Nonvolatile Memory Technology. 1. Retrieved April4, 2023, fromhttp://www.wisetronic.com.hk/news_view.aspx?TypeId=131&Id=390& Fid=t2:131:2

[25]. B. C. Lee, P. Zhou, J. Yang, Y. Zhang, B. Zhao, E. Ipek, O. Mutlu, and D. Burger, “Phase-change technology and the future of main memory,” IEEE micro, no. 1, pp. 143–143, 2010.

[26]. B. Lee, E. Ipek, O. Mutlu, and D. Burger, “Architecting phase change memory as a scalable dram alternative,” in International Symposium on Computer Architecture (ISCA), 2009.

[27]. Z. Li, R. Zhou, and T. Li, “Exploring high-performance and energy proportional interface for phase change memory systems,” IEEE 20th International Symposium on High Performance Computer Architecture (HPCA), pp. 210–221, 2013

[28]. DONG, Y., SUN, F., & QIAN, L. (2021, July 13). Research Progress of DNA Digital Information Storage. Retrieved March 12, 2023, from https://synbioj.cip.com.cn/CN/10.12211/2096-8280.2020-086?cv=1

[29]. Organick,Lee, et al.Random access in large-scale DNA data storage[J].NatureBiotechnology, 2018,(36):242–248.

[30]. Zhang, J. (2012, May 25). Wonderful Biological Computer. China Science Expo. Retrieved March 5, 2023, from http://www.kepu.net.cn/blog/zhangjianzhong/201903/t20190327_475781.html

[31]. Nielsen, M. A., & Chuang, I. L. (2010). Quantum computation and quantum information. Cambridge university press.

[32]. Ladd, T. D., Jelezko, F., Laflamme, R., Nakamura, Y., Monroe, C., & O’Brien, J. L. (2010). Quantum computers. Nature, 464(7285), 45-53.

[33]. J. Houle and D. Sullivan, “Eight Bit Quantum Fourier Transform Using the FDTD Method,” 2021 IEEE Workshop on Microelectronics and Electron Devices (WMED), Boise, ID, USA, 2021, pp. 1-5, doi: 10.1109/WMED49473.2021.9425066.

[34]. Pei, Q., & Yu, G. (2019). Polymer electronics. Science, 363(6427), eaau6970.

[35]. Facchetti, A. (2011). Polymer semiconductor interfaces: from basic science to process engineering. Materials Today, 14(7-8), 354-362.

[36]. Wu, Y., & Bao, Z. (2018). Polymer-based flexible and stretchable electronics using nonconventional materials. Chemical reviews, 118(2), 1130-1188.

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