The Causes of Agricultural Trade Growth between China and Central Asia under the Background of "the Belt and Road" -- An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model

Research Article
Open access

The Causes of Agricultural Trade Growth between China and Central Asia under the Background of "the Belt and Road" -- An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model

Zhao Jiequn 1* , Wang Beibei 2
  • 1 Beijing Wuzi University, Tongzhou, Beijing, 101126, China    
  • 2 Beijing Wuzi University, Tongzhou, Beijing, 101126, China    
  • *corresponding author zjqbrs@163.com
Published on 21 March 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/4/2022995
AEMPS Vol.4
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-915371-17-1
ISBN (Online): 978-1-915371-18-8

Abstract

Central Asia is rich in land, solar and thermal resources, as well as its agricultural labor force. It has superior conditions for agricultural production, which has strong complementarity with China in the agricultural field. Under the current complex international economic and political situation, strengthening cooperation between the two sides in the agricultural field can achieve win-win cooperation, which is also conducive to reversing the situation that developed countries restrict China's agricultural trade. The constant market share model (CMS) is used in this paper to empirical analyze the causes of agricultural trade growth between China and Central Asia from 1995 to 2021 based on UN COMTRADE data. The results show that the interaction between the promotion of the import scale of agricultural products and the improvement of its competitiveness is the main reason for the growth of agricultural exports of both sides; For classified agricultural products, the factors affecting the growth of export volume are different. The main factors restricting export volume growth of China and Central Asia are insufficient competitiveness and unreasonable export commodity structure respectively. In the new era, both sides should strengthen communication and cooperation, adjust the export structure of agricultural products and stabilize the competitiveness of it to further improve trade volume growth.

Keywords:

trade growth, Central Asia, CMS, agriculture products, China

Jiequn,Z.;Beibei,W. (2023). The Causes of Agricultural Trade Growth between China and Central Asia under the Background of "the Belt and Road" -- An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,4,713-724.
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References

[1]. Zhang yu'e, Cao Lijuan, Wei Yanjiao. The definition and classification of the scope of agricultural products in agricultural trade research[J]. World Agriculture, 2016, No.445(05):6-13.

[2]. Qi Xiaohui, Liu Yi. An Empirical Analysis of the Intra-industry Trade of Agricultural Products Between China and Five Central Asian Countries and Its Influencing Factors [J]. International Business,2016(01):50-59.

[3]. Ding Cunzhen, Xiao Haifeng. Analysis on the trade characteristics of agricultural products between China and the countries in the Central Asia and West Asia economic corridor -- Based on the strategic background of the "the Belt and Road" [J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018(06):112-122+163.

[4]. Yang Lihua, Gong Enmin. An Analysis of Trade Structure and Trade Competitiveness of Agricultural Products in Sino-Central Asian Countries [J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang,2019(06):60-69.

[5]. Yan Lu, Cao Chong, Zhao Xianghao. Research on the scale, structure and quality of China′s agricultural ex-ports to five countries in Central Asia——Based on the Belt and Road initiative [J]. Prices Monthly,2021(08):48-59.

[6]. Gong Xinshu, Zhang Xiaoqian. Influential Factors of China's Agricultural Product Exports to the Five Countries in Middle Asia: An Analysis Based on CMS Model [J]. International Economics and Trade Research,2014,30(08):77-87+106.

[7]. Wei Wei, Yu Zichao. Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Products Export Fluctuation in Five Central Asian Countries-Empirical analysis based on CMS model [J]. Northeast Asia Economic Research,2021,5(03):96-108.

[8]. Shaoshuai, buwajian Abra. Analysis on the influencing factors of China's agricultural export trade to the five Central Asian countries -- Based on the constant market share model [J]. Heilongjiang Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine,2017(10):14-19.

[9]. Zhu Jing, Xu Zhiyuan, Li Tianxiang. Fluctuation Analysis on China's Agricultural Export Growth to Five Central－Asian Countries Under ‘One Belt’ Background [J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017,17(05):111-120+154-155.

[10]. Yang Fengmin, Ding Jianjiang. Expand China’s Agricultural Exports to Five Central Asian Countries under The “One Belt，One Road” Strategy:Based on Three Margins [J]. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition),2016,31(03):84-92.

[11]. Ge Tao, Li Jinye. Three Margins of China’s Agricultural Import to Central Asia under the Background of “Belt & Road” Initiative and Its Impacting Factors [J]. Prices Monthly,2017(12):24-31.

[12]. Tan Jingrong, Wang Sisi, Chen Shengjie.“Research of the Trade Potential of the Main Agricultural Products Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries under the Background of One Belt and One Road [J]. Journal of Business Economics,2016(01):90-96.

[13]. LV Xiaoying, sun Zhilu, Li Xiande. A study on the export efficiency and potential of agricultural products between China and the five Central Asian countries -- Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model [J]. World Agriculture,2020(09):65-73.

[14]. Tyszynski, H. 195 . World Trade in Manufactured Commodities, 1899～1950 [J]．The Manchester School, 19(3): 272－304．

[15]. Milana, C. 1988 . Constant－market－shares analysis and index number theory [J]．European Journal of Political Economy,4(4): 453－478．

[16]. Wang taixiang, Zhang Siyu, Zhang Jie, Zhu Honghui. Study on the fluctuation of China's cotton import trade -- factor decomposition based on CMS model [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014(11):82-88.

[17]. Wang Ruyu, Xiao Haifeng. The influence of demand, structure and competitiveness on the fluctuation of textile exports from China and ASEAN to the US -- An Analysis Based on modified CMS model [J]. World Agriculture,2022(01):51-61.

[18]. Ding Cunzhen, Xiao Haifeng. Analysis on the Characteristics of Three Margins and Tariff Effect of Bilateral Agricultural Trade between China and the United States [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2019(03):118-131.

Cite this article

Jiequn,Z.;Beibei,W. (2023). The Causes of Agricultural Trade Growth between China and Central Asia under the Background of "the Belt and Road" -- An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,4,713-724.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development (ICEMGD 2022), Part Ⅱ

ISBN：978-1-915371-17-1(Print) / 978-1-915371-18-8(Online)
Editor：Canh Thien Dang, Javier Cifuentes-Faura
Conference website: https://www.icemgd.org/
Conference date: 6 August 2022
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.4
ISSN：2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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References

[1]. Zhang yu'e, Cao Lijuan, Wei Yanjiao. The definition and classification of the scope of agricultural products in agricultural trade research[J]. World Agriculture, 2016, No.445(05):6-13.

[2]. Qi Xiaohui, Liu Yi. An Empirical Analysis of the Intra-industry Trade of Agricultural Products Between China and Five Central Asian Countries and Its Influencing Factors [J]. International Business,2016(01):50-59.

[3]. Ding Cunzhen, Xiao Haifeng. Analysis on the trade characteristics of agricultural products between China and the countries in the Central Asia and West Asia economic corridor -- Based on the strategic background of the "the Belt and Road" [J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018(06):112-122+163.

[4]. Yang Lihua, Gong Enmin. An Analysis of Trade Structure and Trade Competitiveness of Agricultural Products in Sino-Central Asian Countries [J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang,2019(06):60-69.

[5]. Yan Lu, Cao Chong, Zhao Xianghao. Research on the scale, structure and quality of China′s agricultural ex-ports to five countries in Central Asia——Based on the Belt and Road initiative [J]. Prices Monthly,2021(08):48-59.

[6]. Gong Xinshu, Zhang Xiaoqian. Influential Factors of China's Agricultural Product Exports to the Five Countries in Middle Asia: An Analysis Based on CMS Model [J]. International Economics and Trade Research,2014,30(08):77-87+106.

[7]. Wei Wei, Yu Zichao. Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Products Export Fluctuation in Five Central Asian Countries-Empirical analysis based on CMS model [J]. Northeast Asia Economic Research,2021,5(03):96-108.

[8]. Shaoshuai, buwajian Abra. Analysis on the influencing factors of China's agricultural export trade to the five Central Asian countries -- Based on the constant market share model [J]. Heilongjiang Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine,2017(10):14-19.

[9]. Zhu Jing, Xu Zhiyuan, Li Tianxiang. Fluctuation Analysis on China's Agricultural Export Growth to Five Central－Asian Countries Under ‘One Belt’ Background [J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017,17(05):111-120+154-155.

[10]. Yang Fengmin, Ding Jianjiang. Expand China’s Agricultural Exports to Five Central Asian Countries under The “One Belt，One Road” Strategy:Based on Three Margins [J]. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition),2016,31(03):84-92.

[11]. Ge Tao, Li Jinye. Three Margins of China’s Agricultural Import to Central Asia under the Background of “Belt & Road” Initiative and Its Impacting Factors [J]. Prices Monthly,2017(12):24-31.

[12]. Tan Jingrong, Wang Sisi, Chen Shengjie.“Research of the Trade Potential of the Main Agricultural Products Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries under the Background of One Belt and One Road [J]. Journal of Business Economics,2016(01):90-96.

[13]. LV Xiaoying, sun Zhilu, Li Xiande. A study on the export efficiency and potential of agricultural products between China and the five Central Asian countries -- Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model [J]. World Agriculture,2020(09):65-73.

[14]. Tyszynski, H. 195 . World Trade in Manufactured Commodities, 1899～1950 [J]．The Manchester School, 19(3): 272－304．

[15]. Milana, C. 1988 . Constant－market－shares analysis and index number theory [J]．European Journal of Political Economy,4(4): 453－478．

[16]. Wang taixiang, Zhang Siyu, Zhang Jie, Zhu Honghui. Study on the fluctuation of China's cotton import trade -- factor decomposition based on CMS model [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014(11):82-88.

[17]. Wang Ruyu, Xiao Haifeng. The influence of demand, structure and competitiveness on the fluctuation of textile exports from China and ASEAN to the US -- An Analysis Based on modified CMS model [J]. World Agriculture,2022(01):51-61.

[18]. Ding Cunzhen, Xiao Haifeng. Analysis on the Characteristics of Three Margins and Tariff Effect of Bilateral Agricultural Trade between China and the United States [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2019(03):118-131.

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