1. Introduction

As a nation with one of the largest populations in the world, China’s population has always been a major problem in the development of China. In the 1950s, the decline in China’s population mortality rate led to rapid population growth, which had a serious impact on resource consumption and environmental damage. In order to coordinate population growth with economic and social development, resource utilization, and environmental protection, China began vigorously implementing the family planning policy in the 1970s and was established as a basic national policy in 1982. This policy stipulates that each family can only have one child, and families who exceed the limit will be fined or subject to other punitive measures. Since the implementation of this policy, it is true that the increase in China’s population has been brought under effective control, but it has also caused a number of problems, for example, the aging of the population, the imbalance of gender, etc. With the development of society and the passage of time, China’s population structure has undergone significant changes. As a result of the family planning policy, the fertility rate in China has significantly decreased compared to before, and the proportion of young and elderly people is imbalanced, resulting in a decrease in the labor force and an increasingly severe problem of population aging, which hinders the development of the Chinese economy. Faced with the new population problem, the government realized that the existing fertility policy was not applicable to the current environment and gradually began to take positive measures to encourage fertility. In 2015, the Chinese government announced the cancellation of its family planning policy, which had been implemented for over 40 years, and began implementing the universal two-child policy. In 2021, the government continued to encourage childbirth and issued a three-child policy. Therefore, the dynamic changes in China’s population are the direct reason for the continuous adjustment of the country’s fertility policy. Through the adjustment of the fertility policy, China’s population structure can be optimized.

This study can be divided into eight main parts to delve into the impact of fertility policy adjustments on China’s national economy and society:

Firstly, the literature review section systematically reviews existing research literature, mainly focusing on the relationship between China’s population structure, population policy history, adjustment of fertility policies, and national economic and social development, providing a theoretical basis for subsequent analysis. The second part explores the impact of the adjustment of fertility policies on the Chinese economy. The specific analysis was conducted from three aspects: changes in population dividends and burden, adjustments in labor market and human resource investment, and sustainability of social security and pension systems. The third part focuses on the impact of the adjustment of fertility policies on Chinese society. This mainly includes discussions on three aspects: the impact of family structure and investment in children’s education, the relationship between gender imbalance and social issues, and the challenges of population aging and family support systems. The fourth part analyzes the influence of Japan’s fertility policy adjustment on the country by selecting a case study and explores the connection with China’s fertility policy adjustment. The fifth part examines the challenges that China’s fertility policy will face in the future. Specifically, it includes the challenges of population growth prediction and policy adjustment, as well as the impact of public will and public opinion. The sixth part proposes suggestions for adjusting the birth policy, including implementing comprehensive and multi-disciplinary policies, implementing differentiated policies based on regions, and increasing economic and social support.

2. Literature Review

2.1. China’s Population Structure and Population Policy History

Scholars have never stopped researching and exploring the population issue in China. Wang Xueyi analyzed the world population situation and China’s population situation from several aspects: the theoretical analysis framework of population modernization, the testing index system of population modernization, the background and promotion mode of population modernization, the effect characterization of population modernization, and the institutional arrangement of population modernization [1]. Yang Faxiang analyzed the family planning ideology from ancient China to modern times in chronological order, elaborated on the historical origins of the family planning ideology, and explained the social changes brought about by family planning [2]. Yang Guanghui used statistical methods and actual statistical data to conduct a systematic analysis of the process of population aging in China and its influence on industrial structure. He believed that only through reasonable adjustment and transformation of regional industrial structure can various problems brought about by population aging be fundamentally solved [3]. Wang Xiu believed that in terms of adjusting birth policies, China should learn from the experiences of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. In the current population environment, China should loosen its family planning policy and encourage population growth [4]. Li Jianwei and Zhou Lingling elaborated on the four major adjustments to China’s population policy since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. They believed that the current government needs to adopt measures such as promoting childbirth, improving the quality of the population, and extending retirement age to enhance the sustainability of economic and social development [5]. Chen Wei analyzed the effect of the two-child policy on fertility and concluded that the short-term impact of the policy is clear, but the long run appeared to be slim. China needs to include the promotion of marriage in the policy formulated in the future and institutional establishment [6]. Baiyun analyzed the reasons for the introduction of the three-child policy from the perspectives of problem origin, policy origin, and political origin, based on the theory of multiple sources and its revisions [7].

2.2. The Relationship Between the Adjustment of Fertility Policy and the Development of National Economy and Society

Practice has proven that the adjustment of fertility policies has a close relationship with national economic and social development. Zeng Xiangxu analyzed the mechanism of population dividend on economic growth and conducted in-depth research on the relationship between low fertility level and human capital, consumption, changes in industrial structure, and economic growth [8]. Zhao Lihua believed that during the family planning period, the children’s dependency ratio continues to decline, while the dependency ratio of the elderly continues to rise. As a result, the burden of elderly care on society and families becomes heavier, and once the total dependency ratio increases, China will enter the population debt period from the demographic dividend period [9]. Wang Xinxin linked the macro model of economic environment changes caused by population structure changes with the micro model that can reflect micro family behavior changes and then analyzed the trend of income distribution changes caused by population structure changes. The research results indicate that in the context of multidimensional demographic changes, the incidence of poverty shows a significant downward trend and rural elderly families bear the heaviest pressure of poverty and inequality compared to other age groups [10]. Chi Ming used economic methods to analyze and conclude that China’s universal two-child policy is beneficial to the harmonious development of China’s future economy and society [11]. Bai Zhongli used the comparative analysis method to analyze the economic impact of population issues in the two countries from the perspective of comparison between South Korea and China and proposed that China should learn from the experience of South Korea and find a solution to aging that is suitable for China’s economic situation [12]. Zhuang Guobo first established a multiple linear regression model to study the impact of family planning policies on economic growth and then used the Leslie model to predict that implementing the universal two-child policy will help slow down population aging and that economic growth will accelerate after 2030 [13]. Shi Zhilei, Shao Xi, and Wang Zhang found through investigation that as the education level of women of childbearing age increases, the willingness of urban and rural residents to have two children tends to converge, while the gap in willingness to have three children is widening [14].

3. The Impact of Fertility Policy Adjustment on China’s Economy

3.1. Changes in Demographic Dividend and Population Burden

Demographic dividend refers to a country with a high proportion of working-age population and a relatively low dependency ratio, which is conducive to economic development. The national economy as a whole is marked by high savings, high investment, and rapid growth. On the contrary, population burden refers to a range of social problems resulting from the growth of the social population, which leads to social instability and uncertainty.

During the initial period of the family planning policy, the number of newborns in China has been effectively restrained. The continuous decrease in the birth rate has led to a decrease in the proportion of newborn children to be raised and a higher percentage of the working population, which helps to quickly accumulate social wealth and better meet the labor demand for China’s economic growth. Therefore, this stage is conducive to China’s economic development, forming a demographic dividend period. However, over time, the originally eligible workforce has gradually moved towards the elderly. As the birth rate continues to decrease, the number of young laborers is no longer able to keep up with the social economy growth, and the problem of population aging has become increasingly serious. On October 26, 2022, Li Banghua, Deputy Director of the Elderly Care Services Department of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, introduced at the fourth quarter routine press conference that it is expected that from 2021 to 2025, which is during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the entire number of older people aged 60 and above will surpass 300 million, representing over 20%, and China is about to move into an aging society. In this situation, the once demographic dividend is gradually shifting into a demographic burden, and the burden of elderly care for the next generation of this workforce is intensifying, and the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing.

Since the introduction of the two-child and three-child policies, this phenomenon has been somewhat alleviated. After carrying out the universal two-child policy, China’s birth rate reached a small peak in 2016 and 2017, reaching 13.57 ‰ and 12.64 ‰, respectively. Affected by the adjustment of the birth policy, the second childbirth rate in China has significantly increased. However, since 2018, China’s birth rate has been continuously declining, and even with the following of the three-child policy, the birth rate has been decreasing year by year [15]. In 2022, it has dropped to 6.77 ‰. From this, it can be seen that the population burden in China is still increasing.

3.2. Adjustment of Labor Market and Human Resource Investment

In the short run, the introduction of the universal two or three-child policy means that families with two or three children need to devote more time and effort to raising their children, such as the delivery of pregnant women, the care of wives by husbands, and even close relatives to help. This also means that more laborers will reduce their working hours or need to temporarily leave their job positions. After policy adjustments, there are countless families of childbearing age, and some families are willing to spend one or two years or even longer preparing for childbirth. In this way, the number of laborers in the national labor market will decrease, and there will be a shortage of labor in the labor market, leading to a rise in the cost of human resource investment for enterprises and a slowdown in human capital accumulation.

However, in the long run, the adjustment of fertility policies is expected to alleviate the problem of the aging population in China, increase the proportion of young people, and promote a balanced development of population structure in the future. Firstly, if the proportion of young people expands, the number of people entering the labor market will increase, which can alleviate the problem of labor shortage in the future and provide more human resources for enterprises. Secondly, the universal two-child and three-child policies can stimulate the demand for household consumption and promote the development of related industries, such as maternal and child care, healthcare, education, etc. This will increase employment opportunities and capital accumulation.

3.3. Sustainability Analysis of Social Security and Pension Systems

The implementation of the universal two-child and three-child policies has put forward higher requirements for the national finance and social security system, and the government needs to provide more support in social resources, public services, and other aspects. Various parts of the country have successively issued social security and welfare policies for the three-child policy. For example, the Zhejiang Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau and the Department of Finance announced the practice of the “three-child” maternity insurance benefits policy in 2022, ensuring that the cost of insured female employees giving birth to three children is included in the maternity insurance payment scope, and timely and fully paying maternity medical expenses and maternity allowances according to regulations [16]. In 2022, the Jiangxi Provincial Government issued policies to strengthen support for housing and finance. Families with three children who meet the requirements for housing security should apply to rent or exchange public rental housing within three months. If the physical housing supply is insufficient, priority can be given to providing rental subsidies and increasing the quota by 30% [17]. Since the adjustment of the national fertility policy, various regions have responded positively. The promulgation and implementation of these encouraging fertility policies undoubtedly made it much easier for many people who want to have children but dare not, and to some extent, can alleviate their fertility pressure.

Fan Weiqiang, Liu Junxia, and Yang Hualei constructed population prediction models and pension income and expenditure models and simulated them based on feasible parameters. They found that increasing fertility levels cannot change the situation of accumulated pension deficits in the future. Simply increasing the fertility level without adjusting the pension benefits mechanism may reduce the accumulated pension deficit in the long run, but it will worsen the pension’s financial position in the short run. Adopting a dynamic mechanism to reduce pension benefits while improving fertility can achieve the dual goals of sustainable pension fund growth at the macro level and individual pension growth at the micro level [18]. Zhang Xinjie, Zeng Yi, and Wu Wanzong conducted an empirical analysis of the financial surplus of urban workers’ basic old-age insurance fund before and after changes in the fertility policy by establishing a prediction model for urban population development and a model for urban employee pension income and expenditure. After testing, they concluded that the implementation of the three-child policy is beneficial for reducing the pension deficit for urban employees, and the effect becomes more pronounced with the increase in fertility rate [19].

Through scholars’ research, it can be found that the deepening of population aging will undoubtedly exacerbate the pension payment crisis, but the adjustment of fertility policies is expected to improve this situation. Although the implementation effect of the three-child policy is difficult to reflect in the short term, over time, the increase in the newborn population in the future will restructure China’s population structure, gradually leading to a younger population. After young people enter the labor market, they will inject energy into the continuous supply of pension pooling accounts, which can stimulate the growth of pension account profits, help alleviate the pension payment crisis caused by population aging, reduce pension deficits, and drive economic development. However, as of now, the cumulative deficit in pension funds is still expanding. To promote the sustainable development of the pension system, adjusting the maternity policy alone is not enough. The government should also strengthen measures such as adjusting and supervising the pension system and require the joint efforts of society and individuals to establish a more sound and sustainable pension security system.

4. The Impact of Fertility Policy Adjustment on China’s Society

4.1. The Impact of Family Structure and Investment in Children’s Education

After the practice of the universal two-child and three-child policy, some family structures in China have undergone changes. Nowadays, couples can decide whether to have three children based on their own wishes and take into account objective factors such as the family’s economic situation and physical health. However, families choosing to have three children may face a series of challenges. As family members increase, living expenses inevitably increase, which may bring a greater financial burden to parents. They need to invest more time and money to support their children’s growth, including expenses in education, medical care, and other aspects. This economic and temporal pressure may have an impact on families, so it is necessary to carefully consider fertility decisions.

However, data shows that the effect of population growth after the implementation of the two-child and three-child policies is not satisfactory. By 2022, the country’s population was 1411.75 million, down 850 thousand from the end of 2021, marking the first negative population growth in China since 1961 [20]. Owing to the development of society, people’s living standards have been continuously improving, and there have been significant changes in fertility concepts. Nowadays, young people attach great importance to improving their individual ability and enjoying their spiritual life. They believe that childbirth may increase personal burdens because raising children requires high costs and also brings losses in opportunity costs. Among them, high school district housing prices have a significant impact on couples’ parenting decisions, reflecting their concerns about accessing high-quality educational resources. The fairness and balance of education have significantly affected the willingness of Chinese families to have children, and the huge expenditure on family education has deterred many families from having multiple children. Therefore, they are more willing to use their time, energy, and money to achieve personal value goals, which leads to low fertility intentions and delayed marriage and childbirth.

4.2. The Correlation Between Gender Ratio and Social Issues

Under the past family planning policy, many families with traditional patriarchal beliefs resorted to various means to only give birth to boys, such as conducting gender testing for abdominal pregnancies in advance, induced abortion, and so on. Especially in some rural families, in order to add more labor to their families, they are more eager to conceive boys. Therefore, the gender ratio during this period was imbalanced.

After carrying out the universal two-child and three-child policy, the gender ratio of China’s population has improved to a certain extent. At the end of 2022, the male and female populations in China were 72.206 million and 689.69 million, respectively, accounting for 51.1% and 48.9% of the total population. The gender ratio (male to female ratio) was 104.7, which is at a historical low [21]. However, there is a situation in some provinces where there are more women than men, such as in 2021, the gender ratios in Liaoning and Hebei were both below 100 [22]. Meanwhile, in recent years, the problem of “older leftover men” in rural areas and “older leftover women” in cities has become increasingly prominent, resulting in an imbalance in the proportion of men and women in urban areas. In 2020, over 60% of unmarried men aged 30 and above in China were located in villages and towns with a high school education or below. More than 60% of unmarried women are located in cities and have a high school education or above [23]. With the improvement of economic and educational levels, many women are no longer the “housewives” of the past. Their female consciousness has awakened, and they have more opportunities to choose careers and are willing to achieve their careers through hard work. Therefore, most struggling women in cities have higher requirements for the material conditions and spiritual compatibility of their partners, and they often find it more difficult to find a good match.

Gender imbalance can easily have adverse effects on social stability and gender equality. Firstly, it will directly lead to a decrease in the birth rate of the population. The mismatch in gender ratio means that a large number of single individuals will emerge, making it difficult for them to conceive offspring. Secondly, it may lead to incidents that violate social ethics or laws, such as human trafficking, sexual crimes, etc., which can cause certain damage to social security. In addition, this can also lead to unequal distribution of social resources based on gender. For example, currently, there are still more men than women in China, and women will receive certain unequal treatment in terms of education and work, which is not beneficial to the whole social development.

4.3. The Challenges of Population Aging and Family Support Systems

Since the implementation of China’s family planning policy, the issue of population aging has become increasingly prominent. In this situation, China hopes to alleviate this problem through the adjustment of its fertility policy. On the one hand, the introduction of a comprehensive two-child and three-child policy has adapted to the national conditions. This measure has a certain foresight, and its long-term implementation will help alleviate the problem of population aging and promote the balanced development of China’s population, thereby benefiting the sustainable development of China’s economy. On the other hand, it is an undeniable fact that the aging population in China is constantly deepening. The birth rate in China has been decreasing year by year, and by 2022, the population in China has met negative growth. The improvement of China’s economy, urbanization, educational and medical standards, and the transformation of traditional values have led to a change in the conception of reproduction. More and more people choose to postpone marriage and childbirth, thus accelerating the process of population aging.

Therefore, to deal with the aging of the population, the fertility policy is only one part. To increase people’s willingness to have children, multiple improvement measures need to be taken to achieve this. On the one hand, the cost and burden of raising children in families should be reduced, such as providing certain subsidies for families with more children. Nowadays, housing, education, and other costs are relatively high, which is an important reason for affecting family fertility willingness. On the other hand, it is also of great necessity to strengthen the payment of family pensions and perfect the construction of family pension services so that the elderly can enjoy higher-quality pension services.

5. Case Analysis: The Impact of Japan’s Fertility Policy Adjustment

In recent years, the aging population has gradually become a trend of world population development. Many countries in the world have already entered the stage of aging. For example, in East Asia, Japan is the country that entered the aging stage earlier. Due to its geographical proximity to China and its similar population situation, the country’s measures to address population issues have a certain impact on China.

After World War II, the sharp decline in Japan’s population had a serious impact on Japan’s economy and society. Therefore, the government adopted policies to encourage childbirth, which led to the emergence of a baby boom in Japan. Especially in the three years 1947-1949, Japan’s fertility rate reached a peak. However, the implementation of this policy has caused great harm to women’s bodies, with many women being forced to marry and have children, unfortunately becoming tools for childbirth, and their social status has greatly declined.

In the 1970s, Japan’s economy gradually recovered, and its growth rate accelerated, leading to Japan’s second baby boom. However, since 1974, Japan’s fertility rate has continued to decline. In 1989, Japan’s total birth rate decreased from 1.58 in 1966 to 1.57, which is known as the “1.57 shock”, which has attracted attention from Japan and even the world. In the 1990s, Japan gradually realized the issue of “Sub-replacement fertility.” In 1994, Japan formulated a comprehensive policy called the “Angel Plan” aimed at providing social support for parenting couples and their children in all aspects. In 1999, the Japanese government proposed the New Angel Plan, which added education, health care, and other content to the original foundation, further improving the childcare support system.

Since entering the 21st century, Japan has also been formulating various new plans and policies for the issue of “Sub-replacement fertility.” The Law on Promoting Measures to Support the Cultivation of the Next Generation and the Basic Law on Social Countermeasures for the Reduction of Children were successively introduced in 2003. The former encouraged local governments and entrepreneurs to formulate action plans to support the cultivation of the next generation, while the latter requested the government to establish a “Committee on Social Countermeasures for the Reduction of Children” directly under the leadership of the Prime Minister, to formulate policy guidelines to solve the problem of the reduction of children. So far, Japan has formulated four “Outlines of Social Countermeasures for Fewer Children” and launched a series of policy measures aimed at improving fertility. Among them, the “Japan 100 million Total Activity Plan” released in 2016 proposed for the first time the basic goals of achieving the “expected fertility rate of 1.8” and “100 million within 50 years” within the next ten years. However, from the total fertility rate dropping again to 1.36 in 2019, it can be seen that the Japanese government’s policies and measures to encourage fertility have had little effect. On July 26, the Japanese Ministry of General Affairs released the results of Japan’s population dynamics survey as of January 1 of this year. The results show that excluding foreigners residing in Japan, the total population of Japan is 122.42 million, a decrease of 800 thousand people compared to last year and a continuous decline for 14 years since 2009.

Although these policies have not changed the trend of Japan’s aging population and their implementation has a certain lag, they have, to some extent, slowed down the process of fewer children. The trend of population change in China is similar to that in Japan, and the aging period is later than that in Japan. Therefore, the series of family planning policies implemented by Japan in response to the phenomenon of fewer children undoubtedly have a certain reference value for China and have a certain guiding effect on the practice of China’s two-child and three-child policies.

6. The Challenges of Adaptability of China’s Fertility Policy

6.1. The Dilemma of Population Growth Prediction and Policy Adjustment

Based on the current population situation, China’s population growth rate will decrease in the future. Experts predict that the aging population in China will become increasingly serious, and the birth rate will show a downward trend. Once the population decreases, it will greatly influence the development of China’s economy and society. For example, the shortage of labor has a comprehensive and complex impact on consumer markets such as education, real estate, and maternal and child industries, resulting in a decrease in demand. In addition, due to the development of China’s economy and society, people’s education levels and personal qualities have improved, and people are no longer eager to reproduce. Personal needs have changed compared to before. Therefore, it is difficult for the government to find a perfect policy that perfectly matches current and future population trends and needs.

6.2. The Influence of Public Will and Public Opinion

The low birth rate in China is mainly caused by the reluctance of people to have children. On the one hand, due to the accelerated pace of urbanization, more and more young people are entering the city to work hard. They prioritize their personal growth and career achievements and are more willing to spend their time realizing personal value compared to having children. On the other hand, because the price level is getting higher and the cost of raising children is high, it will increase the pressure on families, so they are unwilling to have more children.

In addition, public opinion has also had a certain impact on family fertility. In today’s society, the awakening of feminist consciousness has led to the emergence of some “Pseudo feminism.” These people are not true feminists. They pursue female independence and discriminate against men under the banner of feminism, which is widely spread online and has had a negative social impact. In addition, some men’s lack of sense of responsibility and cross-gender trends have had a negative impact on fertility.

7. Suggestions for Adjusting Fertility Policy

7.1. Implement Comprehensive and Multi-disciplinary Policies

China needs to formulate and improve its fertility policy from a comprehensive perspective. Raising children goes through many stages, and if the government is only limited to formulating relevant supporting measures in the field of childbirth and the infant and young population, it is still far from enough. At present, the reasons for people’s late marriage and childbirth, or even unwillingness to get married and have children, are very complex and diverse. The government needs to understand that in order to change contemporary people’s concept of childbirth, it is also necessary to provide support in employment, marriage, childbirth, education, elderly care, and other aspects. These stages are interconnected with each other, and without any guaranteed measures in each link, it is difficult to truly achieve the goal. Therefore, the government should formulate a comprehensive and multi-disciplinary policy to safeguard the rights and interests of various parties. For example, providing maternity subsidies to families through methods such as maternity insurance, tax policies, and home purchase discounts; Increasing parenting salaries and extending parental leave; Expansion of public childcare facilities; Strengthen the correct ideological education of young people in making friends, marriage, and love; Increase investment in the fields of education and healthcare; Improve the pension support system, etc.

7.2. Implement Differentiated Policies Based on Regions

China has a vast territory and a large geographical span, with significant differences in population issues among cities and towns of different sizes. For example, the population density in the eastern coastal areas of China is high, while the population in the western inland areas is relatively sparse. Therefore, the government should avoid “one size fits all” and formulate differentiated policies suitable for the development of different regions based on their specific population and resource conditions in order to optimize the overall population structure of the country.

7.3. Increase Economic and Social Support

The implementation of government policies cannot be separated from strong financial support. The government should increase investment in childbirth funds, provide more preferential subsidies to families with more children, and provide more support during the childcare stage. The government needs to allocate funds reasonably, scientifically evaluate benefits, and maximize the use of funds. The population issue is related to the economic and social development of the entire country, so relying solely on the efforts of the government cannot form a cohesive force in the entire society. While increasing financial investment, the government should actively mobilize social forces and provide more economic support to social organizations and relevant institutions, encouraging them to assist the government in providing better parenting environments for families, jointly building a child-friendly society, and promoting sustainable population development.

8. Conclusion

This article focuses on the adjustment of China’s fertility policy, mainly analyzing the effect of the adjustment on China’s economy and society from six aspects. At the same time, it elaborated on Japan’s measures for adjusting its fertility policy, which has similar population issues to China, and pointed out its reference significance for China’s fertility policy adjustment. Then, based on the current population problems in China, predict the future population growth trend and point out the impact of public will and public opinion on the adjustment of fertility policies. Finally, several suggestions are proposed for the future adjustment of China’s fertility policy.

There are still some shortcomings in this article. Firstly, due to limited space, the influence of the adjustment of the fertility policy on the economy and society of China is not comprehensive enough, and the elements are not rich enough. Secondly, there are limitations in the data. When collecting information, due to the lack of statistical data, some of the latest data may not be available, so some of the data in the article may not be comprehensive enough. Furthermore, the research subjects have limitations. This article mainly analyzes the adjustment of fertility policy from the first perspective of China. In future research, different cultural perspectives can be selected to explore this, making the research more comprehensive and objective.