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Detrending U.S. GDP and Policy Responses to Economic Recessions
- 1 Shuai Huang
- 2 Guangdong overseas high school, Guangzhou, 510168, China
- 3 Guangdong overseas high school, Guangzhou, 510168, China
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to verify whether to stimulate investment or consumption when facing a recession in order to stabilize the economy. We use the detrend method and some specific data to analyze the situation. When faced with a financial crisis, some effective measures can help stabilize the economy. To diversify the sample, we include the United States' GDP in 1981–2022. We tried to predict some trend that might happen in the next few years, but when facing such a financial crisis, it shows a sharp downward trend. We also find that the standard deviation of investment is larger than the standard deviation of consumption, which means that in the short term, it’s better to stimulate investment since it can be affected a lot. On the contrary, we had better stimulate consumption in the long term because of its stability.
Keywords
Business cycle, Detrending method, Standard Deviation and Correlation
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Cite this article
Huang,S.;Liang,Z.;Chen,K. (2024). Detrending U.S. GDP and Policy Responses to Economic Recessions. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,101,68-75.
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The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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Volume title: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis
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