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The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Rates in China: An Empirical Analysis Using ARIMA Modeling
- 1 Liberal Arts, The Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, 16802, United States
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This paper conducts an in-depth empirical analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on fertility rates in China using ARIMA modeling and forecasting techniques. The study reveals a significant and fundamental decline in birth rates throughout the pandemic, indicating that the long-term downward trend is more pronounced than ever. This unprecedented drop underscores the severity and uniqueness of the COVID-19 crisis's influence on reproductive behavior. The findings align with prior research on the global economic and health challenges' effects, but the scale and speed of changes during the pandemic remain unparalleled. These dynamics highlight the necessity to reassess and strengthen population management strategies and healthcare systems, particularly in reproductive health and family planning services. Despite utilizing a comprehensive dataset, limitations regarding data scope and sample size persist. Future research should broaden data scope and sample size, analyze regional differences, undertake long-term longitudinal studies, and incorporate multivariable analysis to better understand the pandemic's impact on fertility decisions.
Keywords
COVID-19 Impact, Fertility rate, ARIMA modeling, Public health, Economic uncertainty.
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Cite this article
Jia,M. (2024). The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Rates in China: An Empirical Analysis Using ARIMA Modeling. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,115,126-133.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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