
Trade Policy Uncertainty, Entrepreneurial Confidence, and Corporate Innovation
- 1 Business School, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and escalating trade protectionism, this paper reviews existing research and the timeline of the China-US trade war, while systematically organizing relevant data from Beifa Group. A combined theoretical and case study approach is adopted to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on entrepreneurial confidence and its subsequent effect on corporate innovation, as well as feasible methods to maintain entrepreneurial confidence in the face of fluctuating trade policies. The study shows that under policy uncertainty, entrepreneurial confidence has a significant positive impact on corporate innovation. Case analysis reveals that Beifa Group, in a high trade uncertainty environment, adopted a niche strategy to achieve differentiation, interacted with new markets to drive market-adaptive innovation, and built a digital platform to cluster industry chain enterprises, thereby maintaining entrepreneurial confidence and innovation capabilities. This research provides practical strategies for companies facing trade policy uncertainty, offering insights on how to promote corporate innovation through enhancing entrepreneurial confidence.
Keywords
Trade policy uncertainty, Entrepreneurial confidence, Corporate innovation
[1]. Chen, G. (2023). Trade policy uncertainty and the complexity of export technology: Theoretical mechanism and empirical test. Technology Economics and Management Research, (08), 15–20.
[2]. Xing, X.-B., & Gao, J.-W. (2024). Trade policy uncertainty and technological innovation: The moderating effect of trade networks. Journal of Hefei University of Technology (Social Sciences), 38(02), 43–53, 112.
[3]. Albaglie, Fornero, J., Fuentes, M., et al. (2019). On the effects of confidence and uncertainty on aggregate demand: Evidence from Chile. Journal Economía Chilena, 22(3), 8–33.
[4]. Xu, Z.-W., & Wang, W.-F. (2019). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macroeconomy: A dynamic analysis based on empirical and theoretical perspectives. China Economic Quarterly, 18(01), 23–50. https://doi.org/10.13821/j.cnki.ceq.2018.02.02
[5]. Li, Y.-J., Che, M., & Zhu, Z.-X. (2023). The macroeconomic effects of trade policy uncertainty. China Economic Issues, (02), 117–132. https://doi.org/10.19365/j.issn1000-4181.2023.02.09
[6]. He, A.-N., & Tang, W.-L. (2016). A study on the correlation between entrepreneurial confidence and economic growth. Academic Forum, (1).
[7]. Ilut, C. L., & Saijo, H. (2016). Learning, confidence, and business cycles (NBER Working Paper No. w22958). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[8]. Deng, Y.-L., & Zhang, H. (2024). Entrepreneurial confidence and corporate innovation investment [J/OL]. North China Finance, (06), 83–93 [2024-09-21]. Retrieved from http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/12.1309.F.20240626.1627.014.html
[9]. Liu, X.-J., Jiang, W., & Hu, J.-S. (2019). A study of confidence, monetary policy, and China’s economic fluctuations based on the TVP-VAR model. Chinese Management Science, 27(08), 37–46. https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.004
[10]. Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351.
[11]. Chu, A. C., Fan, H., Shen, G., & Zhang, X. (2018). Effects of international trade and intellectual property rights on innovation in China. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 110–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.05.003
[12]. Cai, M., Cui, R., & Li, D. (2023). Trade with innovation benefits: A re-appraisal using micro data from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 89, 101664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101664
[13]. Zhang, Y.-A., & Guan, Y.-J. (2021). The impact of government subsidies on corporate innovation performance. Industrial Technology Economics, 40(02), 18–25.
[14]. Zhong, T., Wang, C.-Y., & Li, Z.-L. (2020). Ownership structure, tunneling effects, and innovation output: Evidence from listed manufacturing companies. Journal of Xiamen University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), (06), 119–130.
[15]. Tong, J.-D., & Li, S.-Q. (2015). The impact of trade policy uncertainty on export enterprises’ product innovation. International Trade Issues, (06), 25–32. https://doi.org/10.13510/j.cnki.jit.2015.06.002
[16]. Deng, X.-F., & Ren, T. (2020). Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation. Technology Economics and Management Research, (12), 28–33.
[17]. Song, H.-S., & Cao, T.-T. (2023). Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Perspectives of “internal drive” and “external pressure”. International Trade Issues, (06), 86–102. https://doi.org/10.13510/j.cnki.jit.2023.06.009
[18]. Peng, X.-Y., Zou, X.-Y., Zhao, X.-X., & Chang, C.-P. (2023). How does economic policy uncertainty affect green innovation? Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(1), 114–140. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17760
[19]. Shen, H., & Hou, F. (2021). Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from Chinese listed firms in the new energy vehicle industry. Energy Economics, 97, 105217.
[20]. Shabbir, M. N., Arshad, M. U., Alvi, M. A., et al. (2022). Impact of trade policy uncertainty and sustainable development on medical innovation for developed countries: An application of the DID approach. Sustainability, 15(1), 49.
[21]. Yin, J.-W., Zheng, J.-J., & Li, H.-Z. (2017). An analysis of Trump’s political personality traits and policy preferences. Modern International Relations, (02), 15–22, 66.
[22]. Echols, A., & Tsai, W. (2005). Niche and performance: The moderating role of network embeddedness. Strategic Management Journal, 26(3), 219–238.
[23]. Chen, Y. (2023). Export market size, initial productivity, and technological innovation of Chinese industrial enterprises. Contemporary Finance & Economics, (02), 106–119. https://doi.org/10.13676/j.cnki.cn36-1030/f.2023.02.007
[24]. Li, X.-L., Fan, M.-X., & Zhang, X. (2024). The impact of digital platform capabilities on the digital transformation of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. Management Journal, 21(10), 1445–1455.
Cite this article
Chen,J. (2025). Trade Policy Uncertainty, Entrepreneurial Confidence, and Corporate Innovation. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,156,1-10.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
Disclaimer/Publisher's Note
The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s). EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.
About volume
Volume title: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Business and Policy Studies
© 2024 by the author(s). Licensee EWA Publishing, Oxford, UK. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. Authors who
publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this
series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published
version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial
publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and
during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See
Open access policy for details).