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Predicting Gold Prices: Interactions with Energy Markets, Currencies, and Equity Indices
- 1 Faculty of Science, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
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Abstract
This study investigates the dynamic relationships between Gold and several key financial and economic variables, including Crude Oil, Natural Gas, the NASDAQ 100 Index, U.S. Treasury Bonds, the U.S. Dollar Index, and the Housing Price Index. The research uses advanced statistical techniques such as Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to capture the complexities of these interactions and assess how fluctuations in Gold price can influence other variables and overall economic performance. Significant findings indicate that Gold prices are primarily affected by their lagged values and the U.S. Dollar Index, with strong relationships confirmed by high statistical significance. Notably, a rise in the dollar's value correlates with a decrease in Gold prices, while past Gold prices substantially influence current values. The study highlights the interdependencies among these financial indicators, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers. By understanding these relationships, stakeholders can make more informed decisions in an increasingly interconnected economic landscape. This research contributes to the existing literature on asset correlations and enhances the comprehension of the factors driving Gold prices within the broader context of financial market dynamics.
Keywords
Gold, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar Index, VAR model
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Cite this article
Lu,Y. (2025). Predicting Gold Prices: Interactions with Energy Markets, Currencies, and Equity Indices. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,167,1-9.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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Volume title: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Business and Policy Studies
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