1. Introduction
How does monetary policy move asset prices when trading is decentralized, balance sheets are cash–constrained, and investors can only intermittently reshuffle portfolios through dealers? A growing literature emphasizes a turnover–liquidity channel [1]: by altering the relative convenience yield of money, policy shifts the mass of investors willing to rebalance into (or out of) risky claims at over–the–counter (OTC) meetings, which in turn affects prices and quantities in asset markets. We build a tractable dynamic OTC model of equity and money that embeds this mechanism and delivers sharp, testable comparative statics for the equity price–dividend ratio and trading intensity [2].
The environment proceeds in discrete time with two subperiods per period. A unit mass of investors derives utility from consumption financed by dividends; a unit mass of dealers provides intermediation. Equity represents claims on a continuum of productive units that pay dividends before the Walrasian subperiod; intrinsically useless money is the sole medium of exchange. Investors and dealers meet bilaterally in an OTC round with probability τ and bargain with investor weight θ [3]. Dealers rebalance in a competitive inter–dealer market and charge an intermediation fee that splits the OTC surplus. A monetary authority sets the gross money growth rate µ . The structure implies a simple cutoff ε* t in investor valuations: conditional on meeting a dealer, investors with ε > ε* t buy equity and those with ε < ε* t hold only money. Since the cutoff is proportional to the money–equity price wedge, monetary policy that changes the relative value of money shifts the trader mass τ [1 - G(ε* t)] into equity, moving both turnover and the price–dividend ratio through the turnover–liquidity channel.
This paper builds on the core insights of [1] and extends their framework along three substantive dimensions that broaden the economic scope and sharpen empirical content. First, we decouple payout risk from survival and embed trend–adoption into cash–flow dynamics. Specifically, beyond permanent shutdowns, a surviving productive unit may temporarily suspend payouts with probability ι, and its dividend growth mixes inertia with frontier adoption via a parameter Ω ∈ [0, 1]. This separation allows the same productive unit to experience lumpy payout timing without conflating it with survival risk, and it lets the dividend law interpolate between pure inertia and rapid catch–up. Economically, the temporary payout suspension injects payout illiquidity into the cash–flow block, while trend–adoption governs how technological diffusion interacts with turnover liquidity and the price–dividend ratio. These features generate richer state dependence in the cutoff ε* t and in the region of money–growth rates that sustain a monetary equilibrium.
Second, we introduce a two–speed intertemporal discounting structure that cleanly maps to a real rate and a delisting hazard. Rather than a single reduced–form discount factor, agents’ intertemporal trade–offs are parameterized by β0 = 1/(1 + r) and β1 = 1/(1 + p), which combine to deliver the effective period weight in Euler equations. The decomposition isolates how the real interest rate r (a money–bond trade–off) and the survival component p (a mortality hazard for equity claims) enter the pricing conditions for money and equity. The mapping clarifies existence conditions for monetary equilibria and highlights the role of observed delistings or index exits when taking the theory to data.
Third, leveraging linear pricing of real objects to dividends, we derive closed–form money–growth thresholds that bound the set of monetary equilibria with interior money and equity holdings. These thresholds are transparent functions of turnover τ, bargaining θ, survival parameters, and the cross–section of valuations G. They make concrete how expansionary policy relaxes the money Euler inequality by lowering the cutoff ε*, raising the mass of equity buyers, and thereby tightening the link between policy, turnover, and the price–dividend ratio. The formulas organize the transmission mechanism into sufficient statistics—most notably the trader mass τ [1 - G(ε*)]—that can be proxied in data by reallocation flows between money–like assets and equities or by measures of OTC trading intensity.
The model delivers three sets of predictions. First, in any monetary equilibrium with interior holdings, an increase in µ reduces the valuation cutoff and increases the fraction of investors that rebalance into equity upon meeting, raising turnover and putting upward pressure on the price–dividend ratio. Second, the strength of this transmission is increasing in effective OTC surplus, which is governed by meeting intensity τ and bargaining weight θ, and in the thickness of the upper tail of the valuation distribution G. Third, payout timing and trend–adoption reshape the sensitivity of prices to policy by affecting the cash–flow block that underlies linear pricing, delivering cross–sectional differences in policy pass–through across industries and periods.
Relative to the existing theory, decoupling payout risk from survival allows the model to distinguish liquidity–driven trading from cash–flow news in environments where dividends are lumpy or subject to discretionary suspension. Embedding trend–adoption provides a disciplined way to map technological diffusion into asset–pricing sensitivity to monetary shocks. The two–speed discounting clarifies identification of the survival component in the pricing kernel and lends itself to empirical proxies based on observed delistings. Finally, the explicit money–growth bounds and sufficient–statistic representation of turnover facilitate both calibration and event–study designs that use heterogeneity in meeting intensities or bargaining environments as sources of variation in exposure to monetary policy.
2. Literature Review
The literature on the interaction between liquidity frictions and monetary policy transmission has expanded rapidly in recent decades. A central strand of this research emphasises how decentralised markets and over-the-counter (OTC) frictions affect asset pricing and the propagation of monetary shocks.
Early foundations were laid by [4], who developed the seminal search-theoretic model of money as a medium of exchange, highlighting how frictions in bilateral trade determine the acceptability of money. Building on this, [2] formalised OTC market structures, showing how search frictions and bargaining shape asset prices and allocations. Subsequent work by [3] extended these insights toward liquidity within asset markets alongside search frictions, while [5] analysed how asset illiquidity interacts with macroeconomic fluctuations.
A parallel literature has stressed the role of liquidity and funding constraints in amplifying shocks. [6] proposed the influential “liquidity spiral,” linking market liquidity with funding liquidity and showing how shocks propagate through margin and collateral channels. Similarly, [7] investigated adaptive trading with foreseeable returns under transaction costs, capturing the interplay between liquidity and asset allocation.
More directly related to monetary policy, [8] embedded liquidity frictions into an exchange economy, exploring implications for asset prices, while [9] provided a broad synthesis of illiquidity mechanisms in financial markets. The most relevant advance comes from [1] who developed a dynamic OTC market model with turnover liquidity. Their work introduced the concept of a valuation cutoff that governs whether investors rebalance into equity or hold money, demonstrating how money growth influences turnover and the price–dividend ratio through a liquidity channel.
The present paper builds on [1] and extends the framework in three important dimensions. First, it separates payout timing from survival risk, allowing for temporary dividend suspensions and embedding technological adoption into cash-flow dynamics. This captures richer state dependence in policy pass-through, distinguishing liquidity-driven trading from fundamental cash-flow shocks. Second, it introduces a two-speed intertemporal structure, distinguishing between the real rate and a delisting hazard, which clarifies identification in empirical applications. Third, it derives closed-form thresholds for money growth that bound monetary equilibria, providing transparent sufficient statistics for policy analysis.
Together, these extensions refine our understanding of how monetary shocks transmit through turnover liquidity in decentralized markets. They broaden the economic scope of the model, connect it to empirical observables such as OTC turnover and reallocation flows, and offer a tractable framework for calibration and event-study designs.
3. Methodology
Time is modeled as an infinite series of distinct intervals, numbered by
Every production unit is associated with a fully divisible equity claim, which signifies its ownership and grants the holder the right to receive dividends. There is another financial instrument—intrinsically useless money, contributing nothing to the holders’ utility, but can act as the only medium of exchange. All financial instruments are assumed to be perfectly recognisable and can be traded throughout the period.
At the beginning of subperiod one, we experience the shutdown of
In the second subperiod, production units become active, providing each agent with a proportional technology that transforms labor into a standard, temporary consumption good. All the consumption goods generated, equity shares, and currency can be exchanged in an immediate in the Walrasian market. Money can be used to purchase consumption goods to increase investors’ utility. Meanwhile, monetary authority will control the money supply, denoted as
The preferences of a representative dealer are given by:
,
Where
,
Unlike dealers, investors derive utility from dividends. Each investor
When a social planner seeks to maximize the aggregate expected discounted utility of all agents under the outlined conditions, two key features emerge. First, equity holdings across periods are retained exclusively by dealers. Second, at the close of the first period, equity shares remain only with those traders who assign them the highest valuations. The preceding propositions help to shape allocation incentives that determine the equilibrium results discussed in the following section. Specifically, because investors derive linear utility from dividends while dealers place no value on them, efficiency dictates that assets should be concentrated among those investors assigning the highest valuations to the stocks, namely
4. Results
Consider in the period t,
Consider
As a result, standing on the point of a social planner, the optimized consequence would be:
Max [
Subject to:
1.
2.
3.
In period
Let
Since at the beginning of the second subperiod, the dealer holds the portfolio
Subject to
1.
We make
Consider
Subject to
1.
Similarly,
Subject to
The value function of an investor:
The value function of a dealer:
in which
5. Discussion
5.1 Lemma 1
Define
And
=0 if
Consider the investor’s post OTC trade portfolio, is given by
Also the intermediation fee levied by the broker represents
Lemma 1 describes the structure of investors’ and dealers’ portfolios after trading. When
The aggregate equity holds at a constant level over time,
Thus, within a recursive equilibrium framework,
In the analysis, we set
For our analysis, it is easy to define
Where
Lemma 4 shows that
Proposition 1:
(i) For any parameter configuration, a nonmonetary equilibrium exists.
(ii) A recursive monetary equilibrium fails to exist whenever
(iii) In the absence of money, the condition
(iv) If
=
=0 if
And asset prices are
5.2 Proof of Lemma 1
Notice that (3) implies
where
So (2) implies that
s.t.
Hence,
=0 if 0>
And
(A2)
Also, notice that (4) implies
With (A2) and (A3), (1) can be written as:
Max [(
s.t. 0
with
= 0 if
And
=
This concludes the proof.
5.3 Lemma 2
Define
(A5)
(A6)
(A7)
(A8)
5.4 Proof of Lemma 2
With Lemma 1, we can write
(A9)
And
Since
(A10)
Where
From (A10) we have
And from (A9) we have
Where
With the first order conditions, then it is sufficient to get the corresponding statement in the lemma.
5.5 Lemma 3
Throughout interval , the market-clearing condition regarding equity in the interdealer market can be expressed as
Which is equivalent to
{
5.6 Proof of Lemma 3
Recall that
If
While,
Given such formulas, since one understand, a market-clearing state is
5.7 Corollary 1: Equilibrium characterisation
A sequence of prices,
And investor portfolios,
(i) the intermediation fee together alongside a best post-transaction holdings within a OTC market
(ii) the interdealer market clearing
{
(iii) the optimal end-of-period portfolios
For all d
For all j
(iv) End-of-period market clearing
5.8 Lemma 4
Consider
5.9 Proof of Lemma 4
Define
So clearly,
Hence,
5.10 Proof of Proposition 1
Under an equilibrium without money (or where money holds no value), no transactionsarise within the OTC arena. Per Lemma 2, the first-order criteria are:
In the recursive equilibrium,
It confirms section (i) and (iii) in the assertion of the proposition
Then, we turn to monetary equilibrium,
From (A5) to (A12)
1
1
From (A6) to (A13)
From (A7) to (A14)
1
1
1
1
From (A8) to (A15)
5.11 Appendix
Why (1) can be written as Max [(
Firstly, we consider
Where
(M)=
=
=
=
= (
With the budget constraint binding condition
Then,
(M)= (
Let
(M)= [
= [
=[
=(
Secondly, we consider
(N)=
6. Conclusion
We develop a dynamic OTC asset-market model in which monetary policy operates through a turnover-liquidity channel. Trading frictions and bargaining generate a valuation cutoff ε*: conditional on meeting a dealer, investors with valuations above the cutoff rebalance into equity while others hold money. Because the cutoff is pinned by the money–equity wedge, an increase in money growth µ lowers ε*, raises the trader mass τ[1 - G(ε*)], and thereby increases turnover and the price–dividend ratio. Two modeling ingredients sharpen both economic content and empirical discipline relative to existing work [6]. First, we decouple payout timing from survival by allowing temporary dividend suspensions with probability ι and embed a trend-adoption parameter Ω in dividend dynamics; this separates liquidity-driven trading from cash-flow news and yields cross-sectional variation in policy pass-through. Second, a two-speed intertemporal structure with a real rate r and a delisting hazard p clarifies existence of monetary equilibria and delivers closed-form money-growth thresholds that bound regions where money is valued [8]. The framework implies stronger transmission when meeting intensity τ and investor surplus share θ are high, and it organizes measurement around sufficient statistics such as trader mass and standardized OTC turnover. These features make the model tractable for calibration and suggest event-study tests using heterogeneity in meeting frictions, payout suspension risk, and adoption intensity to identify the turnover-liquidity channel [9].
References
[1]. Lagos, R., and Zhang, S. (2020). Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 110(6), 1635–1672. https: //doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170045
[2]. Duffie, D., Gârleanu, N., and Pedersen, L. H. (2005). Over-The-Counter Markets. Econometrica, 73(6), 1815–1847. https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00639.x
[3]. Lagos, R., and Rocheteau, G. (2009). Liquidity in Asset Markets with Search Frictions. Econometrica, 77(2), 403–426. https: //doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7250
[4]. Kiyotaki, N., and Wright, R. (1989). On Money as a Medium of Exchange. Journal of Political Economy, 97(4), 927–954. https: //doi.org/10.1086/261634
[5]. Weill, P.-O. (2007). Leaning Against the Wind. The Review of Economic Studies, 74(4), 1329–1354. https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00451.x
[6]. Brunnermeier, M. K., and Pedersen, L. H. (2009). Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), 2201–2238. https: //doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn098
[7]. Gârleanu, N., and Pedersen, L. H. (2013). Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs. The Journal of Finance, 71(1), 3–41. https: //doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12080
[8]. Lagos, R. (2010). Asset Prices and Liquidity in an Exchange Economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(8), 913–930. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.10.006
[9]. Tirole, J. (2011). Illiquidity and All Its Friends. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2), 287–325. https: //doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.2.287
[10]. Gale, D. (1987). Limit Theorems for Markets with Sequential Bargaining. Journal of Economic Theory, 43(1), 20–54. https: //doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(87)90114-1
Cite this article
Han,R. (2025). Turnover Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets and Its Role in Monetary Transmission. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,228,84-98.
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References
[1]. Lagos, R., and Zhang, S. (2020). Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 110(6), 1635–1672. https: //doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170045
[2]. Duffie, D., Gârleanu, N., and Pedersen, L. H. (2005). Over-The-Counter Markets. Econometrica, 73(6), 1815–1847. https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00639.x
[3]. Lagos, R., and Rocheteau, G. (2009). Liquidity in Asset Markets with Search Frictions. Econometrica, 77(2), 403–426. https: //doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7250
[4]. Kiyotaki, N., and Wright, R. (1989). On Money as a Medium of Exchange. Journal of Political Economy, 97(4), 927–954. https: //doi.org/10.1086/261634
[5]. Weill, P.-O. (2007). Leaning Against the Wind. The Review of Economic Studies, 74(4), 1329–1354. https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00451.x
[6]. Brunnermeier, M. K., and Pedersen, L. H. (2009). Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), 2201–2238. https: //doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn098
[7]. Gârleanu, N., and Pedersen, L. H. (2013). Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs. The Journal of Finance, 71(1), 3–41. https: //doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12080
[8]. Lagos, R. (2010). Asset Prices and Liquidity in an Exchange Economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(8), 913–930. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.10.006
[9]. Tirole, J. (2011). Illiquidity and All Its Friends. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2), 287–325. https: //doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.2.287
[10]. Gale, D. (1987). Limit Theorems for Markets with Sequential Bargaining. Journal of Economic Theory, 43(1), 20–54. https: //doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(87)90114-1