Volume 18 Issue 9
Published on September 2025Herd behavior refers to the tendency of individuals to imitate others' behaviors or opinions rather than engaging in independent thinking when facing uncertainty or ambiguity. This phenomenon is extremely common in the fields of finance and economics. In view of the severe volatility exhibited by the real estate market in the post-pandemic period, this study focuses on the real estate market—particularly the herd behavior in China’s real estate market, which has experienced drastic fluctuations in recent years. The aim is to empirically verify the existence of such herd behavior and explore its influencing factors through empirical analysis. A Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) is employed, with variables including housing prices, personal disposable income, and one-year personal housing loan interest rates incorporated for modeling. The results indicate that significant herd behavior exists in the real estate market, and various factors exert influences on it to varying degrees. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the operational mechanism of the real estate market and formulating reasonable policies.
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This study examines the impact of the Sino-US tariff war and exchange rate fluctuations on China’s soybean import prices during 2018-2019, addressing a critical research gap in understanding how these two factors jointly affect agricultural commodity markets. Using a static price decomposition method with high-frequency data from the US Department of Agriculture, IMF, and China Customs, the research isolates and quantifies the individual and interactive effects of tariffs and exchange rates on import costs. The results demonstrate that tariffs were the primary driver of cost increases in June-July 2018, with a 25% tariff hike raising import costs by 1,379 yuan/ton (100% contribution rate). Subsequently, from July to December 2018, exchange rate fluctuations became the dominant factor, with RMB depreciation contributing to a 527 yuan/ton increase (98.5% contribution rate). When both factors acted together from June to December 2018, they caused a total cost increase of 1,906 yuan/ton, with tariffs accounting for 72.4% and exchange rates for 27.6% of the increase. This study enriches theoretical understanding of agricultural price mechanisms and provides practical insights for policymakers and enterprises in managing trade-related price risks.
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