1. Introduction

The Rust Belt, historically defined by its robust manufacturing base, has undergone profound transformations following the restructuring of global markets, technological advancements, and shifts in labor dynamics. While prior research has explored deindustrialisation's economic and social impacts, a gap exists in understanding the interplay between demographic shifts, labor market conflicts, and technological stagnation in shaping the region’s decline. This paper addresses this gap by examining Rust Belt communities' challenges, such as population loss, economic contraction, and physical deterioration. Through an analysis of empirical evidence and case studies, this research explores the factors contributing to the region’s decline and evaluates potential strategies for revitalisation. The findings aim to provide insights into the broader implications of deindustrialisation and inform policies that prioritise equitable economic development and social resilience.

2. The decline of the Rust Belt’s community

The Rust Belt region has undergone significant transformation and decline over the past several decades, with far-reaching consequences for its communities. This decline has been multifaceted, affecting these areas' social, economic, and physical fabric. Drawing on empirical evidence from relevant studies, this discussion explores the key factors contributing to the decline of Rust Belt communities.

2.1. Population decline and demographic shifts

Significant population reduction is one of the most visible indicators of decline in Rust Belt communities. Major cities such as Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh have experienced a population decrease of over 40% since the 1970s. For instance, "Cities such as Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh have each lost more than 40 percent of their populations" [1]. This demographic shift has not been uniform, with specific neighborhoods experiencing more accelerated deterioration than others. The uneven population decline has led to changes in income distribution, house prices, and human capital within cities and the larger metropolitan area.

2.2. Economic contraction and job loss

The population decline has had a direct and considerable impact on the economic health of these communities.The decline of manufacturing employment, which has traditionally constituted the economic foundation of the region, has led to increased rates of both unemployment and underemployment. This, in turn, has led to a contraction in the tax base, thereby constraining the capacity of local governments to uphold infrastructure and deliver essential services. As highlighted in research, "neighborhoods with the lowest housing prices are the ones that experience the steepest population declines, but income falls more sharply in neighborhoods with middle-tier house prices" [1]. This phenomenon indicates a "reverse gentrification" process where high-income neighborhoods contract inward as border areas become low-income.

2.3. Educational stagnation and human capital

The educational achievement of the resident population, an essential indicator of human capital, has likewise been affected by these transformations. In cities like Cleveland and Detroit, the proportion of residents holding a college degree or higher was relatively low in 1970, at 4% and 6%, respectively, with only minimal improvement observed by 2006. "Cleveland and Detroit had the lowest proportion of residents over the age of 25 with a college or higher degree in 1970 (4 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively), and both experienced relatively small gains in this share by 2006, leaving both at about 12 per cent" [1]. This limited advancement in educational achievement has further impeded the ability of these communities to attract new industries and generate employment opportunities.

2.4. Physical deterioration and infrastructure challenges

Moreover, alongside these economic and social facets, the physical environment of Rust Belt communities has experienced considerable alteration. The exodus of population has resulted in the abandonment of residential and commercial properties, giving rise to extensive areas of vacant land. This has contributed to the depreciation of property values and complicated the maintenance of existing infrastructure. As remarked by an economic development official in Youngstown, "You went from a community you felt had prosperity and a future to a community that had a 20 per cent unemployment rate and there are lines for people to get jobs at McDonald’s" [2]. The physical deterioration of neighbourhoods, characterised by vacant properties and decaying infrastructure, has further eroded the quality of life for remaining residents.

2.5. Social fabric and community cohesion

The decline in population and economic activity has profoundly impacted the social fabric of these communities. The population reduction has led to decreased demand for various social services and amenities, further diminishing the vibrancy and attractiveness of these areas. The social cohesion and community spirit that once characterised these industrial hubs have been undermined by the outmigration of residents and the closure of community institutions.

2.6. Infrastructure overcapacity and municipal strain

The demographic decline has resulted in numerous Rust Belt municipalities possessing surplus infrastructure that poses significant maintenance challenges due to diminishing tax revenues. "After losing more than half its population, the city had excess infrastructure (roads, sewers, and water lines) to maintain with tax revenues from a shrinking number of taxpayers whose property had lost taxable value" [2]. This overcapacity has strained municipal resources and contributed to the decline in the quality of services and maintenance.

The deterioration of Rust Belt communities represents a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, originating from demographic transitions, economic decline, stagnation in educational advancement, and physical degradation. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address the ongoing challenges and promote revitalisation in these once vibrant communities. The lessons learned from the experiences of cities like Youngstown, Cleveland, and Detroit can provide valuable insights for other regions facing similar population loss and economic decline challenges.

3. The decline of the Rust Belt: the economical analysis

A combination of market competition, globalisation, policy shifts, and technological changes has driven the decline of the Rust Belt in the United States. This section thoroughly explores these factors, supported by empirical evidence and theoretical models from recent literature.

Labour market conflicts have significantly contributed to the Rust Belt's decline. Organizations incur the entirety of the expenses associated with innovation yet obtain merely a portion of the resultant benefits, whereas labor union members claim the residual share. [3]. This "hold-up" problem has discouraged investment and reduced regional productivity growth. High unionisation rates and frequent work stoppages in the steel and automotive manufacturing industries have further exacerbated the issue. "More labor conflict, proxied by rates of major work stoppages, is associated with lower employment growth since 1950"[3].

Globalisation has also played a significant role in the region's decline. "The rise of imports and the entry of foreign firms into U.S. markets reduced the market share of Rust Belt producers" [4]. This increased competition has shifted manufacturing employment from the Rust Belt to other regions with lower labor costs and greater flexibility.

Policy factors have further compounded the challenges faced by the Rust Belt. The decline in the region's comparative advantage in manufacturing is due to technological advancements and economic globalization [5]. The deterioration of comparative advantage has resulted in pronounced disparities in welfare among various regions, particularly impacting individuals with lower educational attainment and older demographics who were more predisposed to employment in manufacturing industries.

Technological stagnation has been another critical factor in the Rust Belt's decline.The industrial sectors within the region, including steel production and automotive manufacturing, have gradually integrated innovative technologies. The sluggish technology diffusion and innovation diminished the competitiveness of Rust Belt firms, resulting in decreased productivity growth and job losses.[3]. Experience gained in one sector is not perfectly transferable to other industries, which may have hindered workers' ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.

The rise of skill-biased technological change has also led to a decline in the region.Skill-biased technological change, enhancing skilled labor productivity over unskilled labor, may elucidate trends in union membership and income inequality [6]. The shift from mass production to more automated and computerised manufacturing processes has reduced the demand for unskilled labor, the backbone of the Rust Belt's workforce.

The decline of mass production and the rise of the Information Age marked a turning point for the Rust Belt.The Second Industrial Revolution invigorated labor unions, whereas the advent of the Information Age subsequently diminished their influence [6]. Adopting flexible manufacturing technologies and just-in-time production methods has reduced the need for large-scale, standardised production, which had been the hallmark of the Rust Belt's economic success.

4. Revitalisation policies and challenges in the Rust Belt

The Rust Belt, once the industrial heartland of the United States, has faced significant economic and social challenges in recent decades. This section explores the potential revitalisation policies and the hurdles they encounter, focusing on market competition, globalisation, policy frameworks, and technological advancements.

The decline of the Rust Belt is primarily attributed to the loss of its comparative advantage in manufacturing. The Rust Belt experienced an 8 percentage point decline in output (from 26% to 18%), an 8 percentage point reduction in employment (from 27% to 19%), and a 7 percentage point decrease in population (from 26% to 19%) [7]. This shift underscores the necessity for policies that encourage industrial diversification. Initiatives like the "Techbelt Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute" in Youngstown have shown promise in driving innovation and job creation, though the impact remains modest [8]. Expanding such efforts could help revitalise the region's economy by reducing reliance on traditional industries.

Globalisation has significantly impacted the Rust Belt, with many manufacturing jobs relocated to countries with lower labor costs. "Technological change and economic globalisation profoundly impacted regions oriented toward goods production, especially in the Rust Belt"[7]. To counteract this, policies should focus on enhancing the competitiveness of local industries through subsidies for research and development, tax incentives for innovation, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Additionally, trade agreements that protect domestic industries and promote fair labour practices could help mitigate the adverse effects of globalisation.

Effective revitalisation requires coordinated local, state, and federal policy efforts. "The Youngstown 2010 Plan was created through the fortuitous coming together of several key actors— in other words, through the process of governance— each of whom was eager to ‘do something different."[9]. TThis underscores the significance of collaborative governance models integrating public, private, and community sectors. Policies like wage subsidies and infrastructure investments can enhance economic activity and generate employment opportunities. However, the success of these policies depends on adequate funding and political will, which have often been lacking in the Rust Belt.

Technological advancements present both opportunities and challenges for the Rust Belt.Price fluctuations and Hicks-neutral technological advancements resulted in a relative decrease in the real value of goods sector output [7]. While automation and digitalisation can improve productivity, they also risk displacing workers. Addressing this requires investment in workforce development programs that equip residents with skills relevant to emerging industries. Policies supporting digital infrastructure and innovative city initiatives could also position the Rust Belt as a hub for innovation and attract high-tech firms.

Community engagement has been a cornerstone of revitalisation efforts in Youngstown. Over 5,000 residents engaged, reflecting an unexpectedly high level of public interest [9]. This level of civic involvement has been crucial in shaping the Youngstown 2010 Plan and ensuring its broad acceptance. By fostering community-led initiatives and empowering residents, cities in the Rust Belt can build resilience and adaptability in the face of economic challenges.

The role of leadership in revitalisation cannot be overstated.Emerging leaders occupied the power vacuum, discarding outdated methods in pursuit of innovative concepts [9]. The emergence of a new generation of public sector actors in Youngstown, who recognised the need for innovative approaches, has been instrumental in moving the city forward. Similarly, strong leadership at all levels of government is essential for coordinating efforts and implementing effective policies across the Rust Belt.

Infrastructure investment is vital for revitalisation. "The Plan contains such decline-oriented policies as consolidating infrastructure, directing development into stable neighborhoods, and converting abandoned spaces into green space"[9].By tackling the physical consequences of population decline, including surplus infrastructure and unoccupied properties, urban areas can foster a more sustainable and appealing environment for both residents and businesses.

Economic development strategies must evolve to meet the changing needs of the Rust Belt. The primary objective of Youngstown 2010 is to realign land use with current population densities and to consolidate infrastructure [9]. While traditional growth-oriented policies have proven ineffective, focusing on quality of life and physical regeneration can help stabilise and potentially grow local economies.

Education and workforce development are critical for preparing the Rust Belt's population for the jobs of the future.The Youngstown 2010 Plan lacks an economic development strategy, failing to address how 'downsizing' the built environment could stabilize or stimulate local economic growth [9]. This gap highlights the need for policies that invest in education and training programs, ensuring that residents have the skills necessary to compete in a changing economy.

Revitalisation is a long-term process that requires persistence and adaptability. "Youngstown’s story makes painfully clear that the promises of creative destruction were, for too many, just fantasies. Youngstown might not offer a revitalisation model, but it has proved almost heroically persistent"[8]. This persistence and a realistic and adaptive long-term vision are essential for the Rust Belt's journey toward renewal.

5. Comparative insights on a global scale

The Rust Belt in the United States has experienced significantly worse outcomes than its counterparts in other industrialised countries. "Only 17% of former manufacturing hubs in the U.S. achieved employment growth faster than the national average following deindustrialisation, which is less than half of the average for all six countries studied (34%) and far below Germany, where nearly half (47%) of manufacturing hubs recovered or exceeded their pre-deindustrialization employment levels"[10]. This underperformance is primarily attributed to the relatively low initial share of college-educated workers in U.S. manufacturing hubs, which limited their ability to transition to human capital-intensive industries[10].

In contrast, cities in Germany, such as Erlangen, leveraged their strong educational infrastructure and high initial college shares to attract industries like high-tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services. Similarly, cities in the UK, such as Slough, and Italy, such as Padua, offset manufacturing job losses through growth in sectors requiring skilled labor[10]. The experiences of these urban areas underscore the essential significance of human capital in alleviating the adverse consequences of deindustrialization [10].

The case of Wisconsin in the U.S. further illustrates the challenges faced by the U.S. Rust Belt. While Milwaukee, with its historical manufacturing base, struggled to recover from job losses, Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin, demonstrated resilience by transitioning to knowledge-intensive sectors. This disparity highlights the critical role of educational institutions in facilitating economic revitalization, a trend that has been documented in various other nations as well [10].

6. Conclusion

The decline of the Rust Belt represents a complex interplay of demographic, economic, and social forces that have reshaped the region over decades. Population decline, economic downturn, and educational stagnation have intensified challenges for these communities, while globalization and technological stagnation have worsened regional decline. Revitalization initiatives, including industrial diversification, infrastructure investment, and workforce development, present potential pathways for renewal, contingent upon ongoing collaboration among public, private, and community sectors. The experiences of cities like Youngstown highlight the importance of adaptive governance, civic engagement, and long-term vision in addressing the multifaceted challenges of deindustrialization. The Rust Belt can navigate its path toward renewal and sustainable growth by prioritising equitable economic development and social resilience.