MOUTAI Stock Price Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

Research Article
Open access

MOUTAI Stock Price Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

Shuo Duan 1*
  • 1 Beijing National Day School    
  • *corresponding author 15020140138@xs.hnit.edu.cn
Published on 13 September 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/14/20230779
AEMPS Vol.14
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-915371-71-3
ISBN (Online): 978-1-915371-72-0

Abstract

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are effectively utilized in time series analysis and forecasts. With the focus on MOUTAI, one of the brands in liquor industry that has absorbed great public interest and wide acceptance, this paper studies the pattern of the closing price of MOUTAI stock, fits the data using ARIMA model, and eventually forecasts over the future horizon. Based on daily closing price of the specific stock, a few transformations of the data are carried out, making the fitting process of ARIMA model more accurate. The best-fit ARIMA model is studied and the forecast re-sults are analyzed. According to the increasing trend throughout the interval studied and the unforeseen peak at the beginning of 2021, the causation is discussed: the consumer trend. That is, people are inclined to consume more liquor products during mood swings, which is likely to happen during lock downs and the deteriorated epidemic worldwide. This study provides more insights to the potential investors and buyers of MOUTAI stock and products, and furthermore the liquor industry, giving an overview of the patterns shown in the stock’s closing price and the causation of the forecast results.

Keywords:

MOUTAI, ARIMA, prediction

Duan,S. (2023). MOUTAI Stock Price Prediction Based on ARIMA Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,14,34-41.
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References

[1]. Calina, Daniela, et al. "COVID-19 pandemic and alcohol consumption: Impacts and interconnections." Toxicology reports 8: 529-535. (2021)

[2]. Colbert, Stephanie, et al. "COVID‐19 and alcohol in Australia: industry changes and public health impacts." Drug and alcohol review (2020).

[3]. Stockwell, Tim, et al. "Alcohol sales in Canadian liquor outlets as a predictor of subsequent COVID-19 infection rates: a time-series analysis." Addiction (2022).

[4]. Ramalho, Rodrigo. "Alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: a narrative review." Australasian Psychiatry 28.5: 524-526. (2020)

[5]. Xu, Y., and K. Ji. "Moutai (Maotai): production and sensory properties." Alcoholic Beverages: 315-330. (2012)

[6]. P. Chen, H. Yuan and X. Shu, "Forecasting Crime Using the ARIMA Model," 2008 Fifth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 627-630, (2008).

[7]. Fattah, Jamal, et al. "Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model." International Journal of Engineering Business Management 10: 1847979018808673 (2018).

[8]. Nochai, Rangsan, and Titida Nochai. "ARIMA model for forecasting oil palm price." Proceedings of the 2nd IMT-GT Regional Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and applications (2006).

[9]. Hyndman, Rob J., and George Athanasopoulos. "Autoregressive models." de Forecasting: Principles and Practice, otexts (2018).

[10]. Eom, K. B. . "Analysis of Acoustic Signatures from Moving Vehicles Using Time-Varying Autoregressive Models." Multidimensional Systems and Signal Processing 10(4), 357-378(1999).

Cite this article

Duan,S. (2023). MOUTAI Stock Price Prediction Based on ARIMA Model. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,14,34-41.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies

ISBN：978-1-915371-71-3(Print) / 978-1-915371-72-0(Online)
Editor：Canh Thien Dang, Javier Cifuentes-Faura
Conference website: https://2023.confbps.org/
Conference date: 26 February 2023
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.14
ISSN：2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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References

[1]. Calina, Daniela, et al. "COVID-19 pandemic and alcohol consumption: Impacts and interconnections." Toxicology reports 8: 529-535. (2021)

[2]. Colbert, Stephanie, et al. "COVID‐19 and alcohol in Australia: industry changes and public health impacts." Drug and alcohol review (2020).

[3]. Stockwell, Tim, et al. "Alcohol sales in Canadian liquor outlets as a predictor of subsequent COVID-19 infection rates: a time-series analysis." Addiction (2022).

[4]. Ramalho, Rodrigo. "Alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: a narrative review." Australasian Psychiatry 28.5: 524-526. (2020)

[5]. Xu, Y., and K. Ji. "Moutai (Maotai): production and sensory properties." Alcoholic Beverages: 315-330. (2012)

[6]. P. Chen, H. Yuan and X. Shu, "Forecasting Crime Using the ARIMA Model," 2008 Fifth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 627-630, (2008).

[7]. Fattah, Jamal, et al. "Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model." International Journal of Engineering Business Management 10: 1847979018808673 (2018).

[8]. Nochai, Rangsan, and Titida Nochai. "ARIMA model for forecasting oil palm price." Proceedings of the 2nd IMT-GT Regional Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and applications (2006).

[9]. Hyndman, Rob J., and George Athanasopoulos. "Autoregressive models." de Forecasting: Principles and Practice, otexts (2018).

[10]. Eom, K. B. . "Analysis of Acoustic Signatures from Moving Vehicles Using Time-Varying Autoregressive Models." Multidimensional Systems and Signal Processing 10(4), 357-378(1999).

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