New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict

Research Article
Open access

New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict

Haoming Xia 1*
  • 1 University of Toronto    
  • *corresponding author haoming.xia@mail.utoronto.ca
Published on 13 September 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/19/20230107
AEMPS Vol.19
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-915371-81-2
ISBN (Online): 978-1-915371-82-9

Abstract

Russia and Ukraine engaged in a military battle on February 24, 2022. Russia's military actions are viewed as an act of aggression toward Ukraine by the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and other nations. The global energy crisis brought on by the onset of conflict and international sanctions is unavoidably having an influence on the new energy vehicle industry because Russia is the most significant producer and exporter of oil in the world. This article will use the counterfactual framework built by ARIMA model to study and analyze the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the new energy vehicle industry. In conclusion, in short term, the cost effect dominates, and in long term, substitution effect dominates. This paper innovatively uses an index to examine the relationship between the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the new energy vehicle industry. And it provides reference advice for government policy-making and investor portfolio selection. Government should vigorously develop the new energy industry, while investors should consider increasing the proportion of investment in new energy vehicles.

Keywords:

new energy vehicles, Russia, Ukraine, petroleum, ARIMA model

Xia,H. (2023). New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,19,1-7.
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References

[1]. Semikashev, V.V., Kolpakov, A.Y., Yakovlev, A.A. et al, (2022) Development of the Electric Vehicles Market in Russia as a Necessary Condition for Benefiting from the Global Trend towards Transport Electrification. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev., 33: 274–281

[2]. Sangita Shetty. (2022) Opinion: Impact Of The Russia-Ukraine War On The Global EV Industry. https://emobilityplus.com/2022/05/27/opinion-impact-of-the-russia-ukraine-war-on-the-global-ev-industry/.

[3]. Statista Research Department. (2022) Russian oil industry - statistics & facts. https://www.statista.com/topics/5399/russian-oil-industry/#dossierKeyfigures.

[4]. Council of the European Union. (2022) EU sanctions against Russia explained. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/#sanctions.

[5]. Council of the European Union. (2022) Timeline - EU restrictive measures against Russia over Ukraine. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/history-restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/.

[6]. Tatiana Mitrova. (2022) Understanding the Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Oil and Gas Sector with Limited Data. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/qa/qa-understanding-impact-sanctions-russian-oil-and-gas-sector-limited-data.

[7]. J.P. Morgan. (2022) What’s Next For Oil And Gas Prices As Sanctions On Russia Intensify. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/oil-gas-energy-prices.

[8]. ACEA. (2022) Fuel types of new cars: battery electric 9.9%, hybrid 22.6% and petrol 38.5% market share in Q2 2022. https://www.acea.auto/fuel-pc/fuel-types-of-new-cars-battery-electric-9-9-hybrid-22-6-and-petrol-38-5-market-share-in-q2-2022/.

[9]. Neha Bora. (2021) Understanding ARIMA Models for Machine Learning. https://www.capitalone.com/tech/machine-learning/understanding-arima-models/.

[10]. UNCTAD. (2022) War in Ukraine raises global shipping costs, stifles trade. https://unctad.org/news/war-ukraine-raises-global-shipping-costs-stifles-trade

[11]. Sean Ross. (2022) What Are the Main Substitutes for Oil and Gas Energy?. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/060415/what-are-main-substitutes-oil-and-gas-energy.asp

[12]. IEA. (2021) Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/policies-to-promote-electric-vehicle-deployment.

Cite this article

Xia,H. (2023). New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,19,1-7.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Research and Economic Development

ISBN：978-1-915371-81-2(Print) / 978-1-915371-82-9(Online)
Editor：Javier Cifuentes-Faura, Canh Thien Dang
Conference website: https://2023.icmred.org/
Conference date: 28 April 2023
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.19
ISSN：2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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References

[1]. Semikashev, V.V., Kolpakov, A.Y., Yakovlev, A.A. et al, (2022) Development of the Electric Vehicles Market in Russia as a Necessary Condition for Benefiting from the Global Trend towards Transport Electrification. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev., 33: 274–281

[2]. Sangita Shetty. (2022) Opinion: Impact Of The Russia-Ukraine War On The Global EV Industry. https://emobilityplus.com/2022/05/27/opinion-impact-of-the-russia-ukraine-war-on-the-global-ev-industry/.

[3]. Statista Research Department. (2022) Russian oil industry - statistics & facts. https://www.statista.com/topics/5399/russian-oil-industry/#dossierKeyfigures.

[4]. Council of the European Union. (2022) EU sanctions against Russia explained. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/#sanctions.

[5]. Council of the European Union. (2022) Timeline - EU restrictive measures against Russia over Ukraine. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/history-restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/.

[6]. Tatiana Mitrova. (2022) Understanding the Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Oil and Gas Sector with Limited Data. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/qa/qa-understanding-impact-sanctions-russian-oil-and-gas-sector-limited-data.

[7]. J.P. Morgan. (2022) What’s Next For Oil And Gas Prices As Sanctions On Russia Intensify. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/oil-gas-energy-prices.

[8]. ACEA. (2022) Fuel types of new cars: battery electric 9.9%, hybrid 22.6% and petrol 38.5% market share in Q2 2022. https://www.acea.auto/fuel-pc/fuel-types-of-new-cars-battery-electric-9-9-hybrid-22-6-and-petrol-38-5-market-share-in-q2-2022/.

[9]. Neha Bora. (2021) Understanding ARIMA Models for Machine Learning. https://www.capitalone.com/tech/machine-learning/understanding-arima-models/.

[10]. UNCTAD. (2022) War in Ukraine raises global shipping costs, stifles trade. https://unctad.org/news/war-ukraine-raises-global-shipping-costs-stifles-trade

[11]. Sean Ross. (2022) What Are the Main Substitutes for Oil and Gas Energy?. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/060415/what-are-main-substitutes-oil-and-gas-energy.asp

[12]. IEA. (2021) Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/policies-to-promote-electric-vehicle-deployment.

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