Towards Fair Credit Risk Assessment: Developing Mathematical Models with Equity and Accuracy

Research Article
Open access

Towards Fair Credit Risk Assessment: Developing Mathematical Models with Equity and Accuracy

Siyuan Wu 1 , Tingting Yang 2*
  • 1 Pomfret School    
  • 2 University of Wisconsin-Madison    
  • *corresponding author Mobphyspde100@outlook.com
Published on 10 November 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/44/20232211
AEMPS Vol.44
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-83558-109-4
ISBN (Online): 978-1-83558-110-0

Abstract

Credit default risk is an important factor in determining whether a person can apply for a credit card and continue to use it. Hothis studyver, the assessment of credit default risk should be fair and unbiased, especially as credit cards become an increasingly popular payment method. In this paper, this study analyze how to assess a user’s credit default risk while emphasizing the importance of machine learning fairness. this study propose using principal component analysis (PCA) to extract key factors for judging credit default risk and a BP neural network to evaluate and analyze these factors. this study also propose adversarial representation learning which is aim to address discrimination against different minority group people. Our main purpose is to train the main network to generate features that the discriminator cannot use to accurately predict the sensitive attribute. By doing so, the learned features become fairer and do not contain discriminatory information. Therefore, adversarial representation learning is aimed at reducing discrimination against minority groups in machine learning models. Our approach serves as a natural method for ensuring that these parties act fairly and various adversarial objectives. this study demonstrate that selecting the appropriate objective is essential for achieving fair prediction. Through our approach, this study aim to ensure that our credit default risk assessment is fair and equitable for all users of different gender, race, and education.

Keywords:

credit cards, credit default risk, principal component analysis

Wu,S.;Yang,T. (2023). Towards Fair Credit Risk Assessment: Developing Mathematical Models with Equity and Accuracy. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,44,151-165.
Export citation

References

[1]. Amir E Khandani, Adlar J Kim, and Andrew W Lo. Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(11):2767–2787, 2010

[2]. Khyati Chaudhary, Jyoti Yadav, and Bhawna Mallick. A review of fraud detection techniques: Credit card. International Journal of Computer Applications, 45(1):39–44, 2012

[3]. Aihua Shen, Rencheng Tong, and Yaochen Deng. Application of classification models on credit card fraud detection. In 2007 International conference on service systems and service management, pages 1–4. IEEE, 2007.

[4]. Sumit Agarwal, Paige Marta Skiba, and Jeremy Tobacman. Payday loans and credit cards: New liquidity and credit scoring puzzles? American Economic Review, 99(2):412–417, 2009.

[5]. Dejan Varmedja, Mirjana Karanovic, Srdjan Sladojevic, Marko Arsenovic, and Andras Anderla. Credit card fraud detection-machine learning methods. In 2019 18th International Symposium INFOTEH-JAHORINA (INFOTEH), pages 1–5. IEEE, 2019

[6]. Tal Zarsky. The trouble with algorithmic decisions: An analytic road map to examine efficiency and fairness in automated and opaque decision making. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 41(1):118–132, 2016.

[7]. Zhenpeng Chen, Jie M Zhang, Federica Sarro, and Mark Harman. Maat: a novel ensemble approach to addressing fairness and performance bugs for machine learning software. In Proceedings of the 30th ACM Joint European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering, pages 1122–1134, 2022

[8]. Maria De-Arteaga, Stefan Feuerriegel, and Maytal Saar-Tsechansky. Algorithmic fairness in business analytics: Directions for research and practice. Production and Operations Management, 31(10):3749–3770, 2022.

[9]. Mahmoud Abdallah, Nhien An Le Khac, Hamed Jahromi, and Anca Delia Jurcut. A hybrid cnn-lstm based approach for anomaly detection systems in sdns. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, pages 1–7, 2021.

[10]. Tuong Le, Bay Vo, Hamido Fujita, Ngoc-Thanh Nguyen, and Sung Wook Baik. A fast and accurate approach for bankruptcy forecasting using squared logistics loss with gpu-based extreme gradient boosting. Information Sciences, 494:294–310, 2019.

[11]. María Óskarsdóttir, Cristián Bravo, Carlos Sarraute, Jan Vanthienen, and Bart Baesens. The value of big data for credit scoring: Enhancing financial inclusion using mobile phone data and social network analytics. Applied Soft Computing, 74:26–39, 2019.

[12]. Ninareh Mehrabi, Fred Morstatter, Nripsuta Saxena, Kristina Lerman, and Aram Galstyan. A survey on bias and fairness in machine learning. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 54(6):1–35, 2021.

[13]. David Madras, Elliot Creager, Toniann Pitassi, and Richard Zemel. Learning adversarially fair and transferable representations. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 3384–3393. PMLR, 2018

[14]. Nhlakanipho Michael Mqadi, Nalindren Naicker, and Timothy Adeliyi. Solving misclassification of the credit card imbalance problem using near miss. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021:1–16, 2021.

[15]. Saharon Rosset. Model selection via the auc. In Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on Machine learning, page 89, 2004.

[16]. Yulu Jin and Lifeng Lai. Fairness-aware regression robust to adversarial attacks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.04449, 2022

[17]. Clemens Kreutz, Andreas Raue, and Jens Timmer. Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models. BMC Systems Biology, 6(1):1–9, 2012.

[18]. JD Balakrishnan and Roger Ratcliff. Testing models of decision making using confidence ratings in classification. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 22(3):615, 1996

[19]. Nazeeh Ghatasheh. Business analytics using random forest trees for credit risk prediction: a comparison study. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 72(2014):19–30, 2014.

[20]. Trishita Saha, Saroj Kumar Biswas, Saptarsi Sanyal, Souvik Kumar Parui, and Biswajit Purkayastha. Credit risk prediction using extra trees ensemble method. In 2023 11th International Conference on Internet of Everything, Microwave Engineering, Communication and Networks (IEMECON), pages 1–8. IEEE, 2023

[21]. Wenyu Qiu. Credit risk prediction in an imbalanced social lending environment based on xgboost. In 2019 5th International Conference on Big Data and Information Analytics (BigDIA), pages 150–156. IEEE, 2019.

[22]. Maria Aparecida Gouvêa and Eric Bacconi Gonçalves. Credit risk analysis applying logistic regression, neural networks and genetic algorithms models. In POMS 18th annual conference, 2007.

[23]. Siddharth Bhatore, Lalit Mohan, and Y Raghu Reddy. Machine learning techniques for credit risk evaluation: a systematic literature review. Journal of Banking and Financial Technology, 4:111–138, 2020


Cite this article

Wu,S.;Yang,T. (2023). Towards Fair Credit Risk Assessment: Developing Mathematical Models with Equity and Accuracy. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,44,151-165.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

Disclaimer/Publisher's Note

The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s). EWA Publishing and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development

ISBN:978-1-83558-109-4(Print) / 978-1-83558-110-0(Online)
Editor:Canh Thien Dang
Conference website: https://www.icemgd.org/
Conference date: 6 August 2023
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.44
ISSN:2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

© 2024 by the author(s). Licensee EWA Publishing, Oxford, UK. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open access policy for details).

References

[1]. Amir E Khandani, Adlar J Kim, and Andrew W Lo. Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(11):2767–2787, 2010

[2]. Khyati Chaudhary, Jyoti Yadav, and Bhawna Mallick. A review of fraud detection techniques: Credit card. International Journal of Computer Applications, 45(1):39–44, 2012

[3]. Aihua Shen, Rencheng Tong, and Yaochen Deng. Application of classification models on credit card fraud detection. In 2007 International conference on service systems and service management, pages 1–4. IEEE, 2007.

[4]. Sumit Agarwal, Paige Marta Skiba, and Jeremy Tobacman. Payday loans and credit cards: New liquidity and credit scoring puzzles? American Economic Review, 99(2):412–417, 2009.

[5]. Dejan Varmedja, Mirjana Karanovic, Srdjan Sladojevic, Marko Arsenovic, and Andras Anderla. Credit card fraud detection-machine learning methods. In 2019 18th International Symposium INFOTEH-JAHORINA (INFOTEH), pages 1–5. IEEE, 2019

[6]. Tal Zarsky. The trouble with algorithmic decisions: An analytic road map to examine efficiency and fairness in automated and opaque decision making. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 41(1):118–132, 2016.

[7]. Zhenpeng Chen, Jie M Zhang, Federica Sarro, and Mark Harman. Maat: a novel ensemble approach to addressing fairness and performance bugs for machine learning software. In Proceedings of the 30th ACM Joint European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering, pages 1122–1134, 2022

[8]. Maria De-Arteaga, Stefan Feuerriegel, and Maytal Saar-Tsechansky. Algorithmic fairness in business analytics: Directions for research and practice. Production and Operations Management, 31(10):3749–3770, 2022.

[9]. Mahmoud Abdallah, Nhien An Le Khac, Hamed Jahromi, and Anca Delia Jurcut. A hybrid cnn-lstm based approach for anomaly detection systems in sdns. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, pages 1–7, 2021.

[10]. Tuong Le, Bay Vo, Hamido Fujita, Ngoc-Thanh Nguyen, and Sung Wook Baik. A fast and accurate approach for bankruptcy forecasting using squared logistics loss with gpu-based extreme gradient boosting. Information Sciences, 494:294–310, 2019.

[11]. María Óskarsdóttir, Cristián Bravo, Carlos Sarraute, Jan Vanthienen, and Bart Baesens. The value of big data for credit scoring: Enhancing financial inclusion using mobile phone data and social network analytics. Applied Soft Computing, 74:26–39, 2019.

[12]. Ninareh Mehrabi, Fred Morstatter, Nripsuta Saxena, Kristina Lerman, and Aram Galstyan. A survey on bias and fairness in machine learning. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 54(6):1–35, 2021.

[13]. David Madras, Elliot Creager, Toniann Pitassi, and Richard Zemel. Learning adversarially fair and transferable representations. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 3384–3393. PMLR, 2018

[14]. Nhlakanipho Michael Mqadi, Nalindren Naicker, and Timothy Adeliyi. Solving misclassification of the credit card imbalance problem using near miss. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021:1–16, 2021.

[15]. Saharon Rosset. Model selection via the auc. In Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on Machine learning, page 89, 2004.

[16]. Yulu Jin and Lifeng Lai. Fairness-aware regression robust to adversarial attacks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.04449, 2022

[17]. Clemens Kreutz, Andreas Raue, and Jens Timmer. Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models. BMC Systems Biology, 6(1):1–9, 2012.

[18]. JD Balakrishnan and Roger Ratcliff. Testing models of decision making using confidence ratings in classification. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 22(3):615, 1996

[19]. Nazeeh Ghatasheh. Business analytics using random forest trees for credit risk prediction: a comparison study. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 72(2014):19–30, 2014.

[20]. Trishita Saha, Saroj Kumar Biswas, Saptarsi Sanyal, Souvik Kumar Parui, and Biswajit Purkayastha. Credit risk prediction using extra trees ensemble method. In 2023 11th International Conference on Internet of Everything, Microwave Engineering, Communication and Networks (IEMECON), pages 1–8. IEEE, 2023

[21]. Wenyu Qiu. Credit risk prediction in an imbalanced social lending environment based on xgboost. In 2019 5th International Conference on Big Data and Information Analytics (BigDIA), pages 150–156. IEEE, 2019.

[22]. Maria Aparecida Gouvêa and Eric Bacconi Gonçalves. Credit risk analysis applying logistic regression, neural networks and genetic algorithms models. In POMS 18th annual conference, 2007.

[23]. Siddharth Bhatore, Lalit Mohan, and Y Raghu Reddy. Machine learning techniques for credit risk evaluation: a systematic literature review. Journal of Banking and Financial Technology, 4:111–138, 2020