US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective

Kaichen Zhang

doi:10.54254/2754-1169/49/20230487

Research Article

Open access

Published on 1 December 2023

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Zhang,K. (2023).US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective.Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,49,77-83.

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US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective

Kaichen Zhang *^,1,

¹ The High School affiliated to Beijing Normal University, Beijing

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/49/20230487

Abstract

Since the US initiated the trade war and sought the decoupling of trade between China and the US, the US economic and financial situation has taken a sharp turn and inflation has remained high. So, this article studied the inflation analysis of the United States from the perspective of Sino-US trade and made a forecast. This paper constructs an ARIMAX model to empirically analyze the relationship between US-China trade and US inflation. The study shows that there is a significant positive correlation between China's export price index and the US CPI, which shows that China and the US are important stakeholders of each other. Because the United States is one of the largest economies, its economic development is of great significance to the world economic pattern and affects the whole world. Through the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States, the inflation rate of the United States will be reduced, and the economic growth of the United States will be promoted.

Keywords

inflation, ARIMAX model, export price index, CPI

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Cite this article

Zhang,K. (2023).US Inflation Analysis and Forecast Based on US-China Trade Perspective.Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,49,77-83.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis

Conference website: https://www.icftba.org/

ISBN：978-1-83558-145-2(Print) / 978-1-83558-146-9(Online)

Conference date: 8 November 2023

Editor：Javier Cifuentes-Faura

Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences

Volume number: Vol.49

ISSN：2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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