To what Extent does Cognitive Bias Play a Role in the Prediction of Black Swan Events Using the Challenger's Case Study

Xinyue Deng; Xinhui Jiang

doi:10.54254/2753-7048/18/20231288

Research Article

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Published on 26 October 2023

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Deng,X.;Jiang,X. (2023). To what Extent does Cognitive Bias Play a Role in the Prediction of Black Swan Events Using the Challenger's Case Study. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,18,63-68.

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To what Extent does Cognitive Bias Play a Role in the Prediction of Black Swan Events Using the Challenger's Case Study

Xinyue Deng *^,1, Xinhui Jiang ²

¹ United World College Southeast Asia East Campus
² Cogdel Cranleigh School Changsha

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-7048/18/20231288

Abstract

In this essay, different types of cognitive biases and its role in the prediction of black swan events is explored through the use of the 1986 Challenger disaster. The challenger’s case was mainly caused by its o-rings failure due to cold weather, which was unpredictable and unexpected by all engineers at NASA. The different types of cognitive biases that were in-volved in this event were confirmation biases, sunk cost fallacy and groupthink mentally. Along with the political and social pressures at the time, these confirmation biases play a role in the false decision-making process during the challenger’s launch, which in itself is a black swan event. This leads to an importance in the prevention and recognition of cognitive biases, which requires strategies.

Keywords

cognitive bias, black swan events, 1986 challenger’s case

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Educational Innovation and Philosophical Inquiries

Conference website: https://www.iceipi.org/

ISBN：978-1-83558-061-5(Print) / 978-1-83558-062-2(Online)

Conference date: 7 August 2023

Editor：Enrique Mallen, Javier Cifuentes-Faura

Series: Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media

Volume number: Vol.18

ISSN：2753-7048(Print) / 2753-7056(Online)

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