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Prediction of atmospheric temperature in Sacramento area based on ARIMA and ETS models
- 1 National University of Singapore, 117546, Singapore
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
As global temperatures increased by 1.1 Celsius degrees, there has unprecedented shifts in climate systems. With the rising impact of global warming, exploring the warming trend helps to better understand and maintain the local environment and economy. This study focuses on predicting atmospheric temperature in the Sacramento area using ARIMA and ETS models. The research uses the temperature data from Sacramento Airport's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and explores the prediction performance of ARIMA, ETS, and ARIMAX models in predicting daily average temperatures. The results indicate the ARIMAX (1,1,1) model is the most suitable for forecasting this temperature data with the lowest AIC and RMSE values. However, there are still challenges, in particular the dependence of the ARIMAX model on future exogenous variables, which leads to the forecast outcomes less accurate. To enable this ARIMAX models have better prediction performance, incorporating more exogenous variables is a potential solution. Therefore, the methods discussed in this paper provides ideas for the atmospheric temperature forecasting and points out the direction for further research.
Keywords
ARIMA, ARIMAX, ETS, atmospheric temperature, weather forecasting.
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Cite this article
Li,K. (2024). Prediction of atmospheric temperature in Sacramento area based on ARIMA and ETS models. Theoretical and Natural Science,51,165-171.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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Volume title: Proceedings of CONF-MPCS 2024 Workshop: Quantum Machine Learning: Bridging Quantum Physics and Computational Simulations
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