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Analysis of Global Influenza Outbreak Cycles and Patterns
- 1 College of Liberal Arts & Sciences at Illinois, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, United State of America, 61820
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
History demonstrates that despite continuous advancements in modern medicine, the cyclical tendency of influenza to break out locally or globally remains largely unhindered. In 1918, the world experienced the most famous severe influenza pandemic in history—the “Spanish Flu”. Following this pandemic, the average life expectancy in the United States dropped by 10 years. In 1957, the “Asian Flu” (virus type H2N2) emerged, sweeping through Asian countries within two weeks before spreading to Australia, the Americas, and Europe, affecting countless nations. Globally, over 2 million people were affected by this outbreak. Since April 2009, multiple countries and regions, including Mexico and the United States, have experienced outbreaks of H1N1 influenza. This paper aims to analyze the periodic patterns and rules of influenza outbreaks and transmission through climate influences by examining global influenza surveillance data from the World Health Organization, utilizing Python modeling techniques. Based on the research, this paper found that the spread of influenza will have different transmission cycles depending on the region and climate. Secondly, the spread of influenza will be affected by factors such as season, temperature, humidity and temperature difference between day and night. At the same time, through the study of the three proposed human activities, it was found that only school holidays significantly reduce the spread of the virus.
Keywords
influenza, region, outbreak
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Cite this article
Li,H. (2025). Analysis of Global Influenza Outbreak Cycles and Patterns. Theoretical and Natural Science,93,8-12.
Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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Volume title: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Environmental Geoscience and Earth Ecology
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