Exploring the relationship between mortality and potential risk factors in US 50 states: A population perspective using partial least squares and geographically weighted regression models

Research Article
Open access

Exploring the relationship between mortality and potential risk factors in US 50 states: A population perspective using partial least squares and geographically weighted regression models

Chang Guo 1*
  • 1 Baylor University    
  • *corresponding author chang_guo2@baylor.edu
Published on 26 December 2023 | https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/28/20230426
TNS Vol.28
ISSN (Print): 2753-8826
ISSN (Online): 2753-8818
ISBN (Print): 978-1-83558-261-9
ISBN (Online): 978-1-83558-262-6

Abstract

While Alzheimer's disease becomes prevalent in elder population and attracts investment of thousands of billions for its research, its pathogenesis remains unknown. The relationship between multiple potential risk factors (Overall Health, Caregiving, cognitive decline, Nutrition/Physical Activity/Obesity, Screenings and Vaccines, mental health, Smoking and Alcohol Use) and Alzheimer's disease mortality in the 50 US states in 2020 was explored by developing multiple linear regression models, partial least squares regression models, and geographically weighted regression models in this article. In this experiment, through multiple linear regression models, we found eight significant demographic indicator variables, and to solve the covariance problem, we successfully constructed the pls model, and using the regression coefficients in the equation, we screened out the most important variables for the model, TOC06 and sex. In addition, we then explored the characteristics of the spatial distribution of mortality in Alzheimer's disease according to TOC06 and sex variables using the GWR model.

Keywords:

Multiple Linear Regression Models, Partial Least Square Regression, Alzheimer’s Disease, Risk Factors, Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Guo,C. (2023). Exploring the relationship between mortality and potential risk factors in US 50 states: A population perspective using partial least squares and geographically weighted regression models. Theoretical and Natural Science,28,188-205.
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References

[1]. Ho, J. Y., & Franco, Y. (2022). The rising burden of Alzheimer’s disease mortality in rural America. SSM - Population Health, 17, 101052. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101052

[2]. Brookmeyer, R., Johnson, E., Ziegler-Graham, K., & Arrighi, H. M. (2007). Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 3(3), 186–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381

[3]. Zhang, X.-X., Tian, Y., Wang, Z.-T., Ma, Y.-H., Tan, L., & Yu, J.-T. (2021). The Epidemiology of Alzheimer’s Disease Modifiable Risk Factors and Prevention. The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease, 8(3), 313–321. https://doi.org/10.14283/jpad.2021.15

[4]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Mortality 1999-2020 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released in 2021. Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2020, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html on May 26, 2023 10:55:26 AM

[5]. A Armstrong, R. (2019). Risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease. Folia Neuropathologica, 57(2), 87–105. https://doi.org/10.5114/fn.2019.85929

[6]. Nebel, R. A., Aggarwal, N. T., Barnes, L. L., Gallagher, A., Goldstein, J. M., Kantarci, K., Mallampalli, M. P., Mormino, E. C., Scott, L., Yu, W. H., Maki, P. M., & Mielke, M. M. (2018). Understanding the impact of sex and gender in Alzheimer’s disease: A call to action. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 14(9), 1171–1183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2018.04.008

[7]. Baumgart, M., Snyder, H. M., Carrillo, M. C., Fazio, S., Kim, H., & Johns, H. (2015). Summary of the evidence on modifiable risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia: A population-based perspective. Alzheimer’s & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association, 11(6), 718–726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2015.05.016

[8]. Rovio, S., Kåreholt, I., Helkala, E.-L., Viitanen, M., Winblad, B., Tuomilehto, J., Soininen, H., Nissinen, A., & Kivipelto, M. (2005). Leisure-time physical activity at midlife and the risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. The Lancet Neurology, 4(11), 705–711. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-4422(05)70198-8

[9]. Novais, F., & Starkstein, S. (2015). Phenomenology of Depression in Alzheimer’s Disease. Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, 47(4), 845–855. https://doi.org/10.3233/JAD-148004

[10]. Wilson, R. S., Evans, D. A., Bienias, J. L., Leon, C. F. M. de, Schneider, J. A., & Bennett, D. A. (2003). Proneness to psychological distress is associated with risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Neurology, 61(11), 1479–1485. https://doi.org/10.1212/01.WNL.0000096167.56734.59

[11]. Crous-Bou, Marta, Carolina Minguillón, Nina Gramunt, and José Luis Molinuevo. “Alzheimer’s Disease Prevention: From Risk Factors to Early Intervention.” Alzheimer’s Research & Therapy 9, no. 1 (September 12, 2017): 71. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13195-017-0297-z.

[12]. Kiyak, H. A., Teri, L., & Borson, S. (1994). Physical and Functional Health Assessment in Normal Aging and in Alzheimer’s Disease: Self-Reports vs Family Reports1. The Gerontologist, 34(3), 324–331. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/34.3.324

[13]. Oleske, D. M., Wilson, R. S., Bernard, B. A., Evans, D. A., & Terman, E. W. (1995). Epidemiology of Injury in People with Alzheimer’s Disease. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 43(7), 741–746. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1995.tb07042.x

[14]. McGeer, P. L., Schulzer, M., & McGeer, E. G. (1996). Arthritis and anti-inflammatory agents as possible protective factors for Alzheimer’s disease: A review of 17 epidemiologic studies. Neurology, 47(2), 425–432. https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.47.2.425

[15]. Peter-Derex, L., Yammine, P., Bastuji, H., & Croisile, B. (2015). Sleep and Alzheimer’s disease. Sleep Medicine Reviews, 19, 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smrv.2014.03.007

[16]. Ribeiro, G. R., Costa, J. L. R., Bovi Ambrosano, G. M., & Rodrigues Garcia, R. C. M. (2012). Oral health of the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease. Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology and Oral Radiology, 114(3), 338–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oooo.2012.03.028

[17]. Zanetti, O., Bianchetti, A., Frisoni, G. B., Rozzini, R., & Trabucchi, M. (1993). Determinants of disability in alzheimer’s disease. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 8(7), 581–586. https://doi.org/10.1002/gps.930080709

[18]. Verreault, R., Laurin, D., Lindsay, J., & Serres, G. D. (2001). Past exposure to vaccines and subsequent risk of Alzheimer’s disease. CMAJ, 165(11), 1495–1498.

[19]. Lv, G., Wang, X., Jiang, X., Li, M., & Lu, K. (2022). Impact of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias on colorectal cancer screening utilization, knowledge, and associated health disparities. Frontiers in Pharmacology, 13, 872702. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2022.872702

[20]. Ukraintseva, S., Yashkin, A., Duan, M., Akushevich, I., Arbeev, K., Wu, D., Stallard, E., Tropsha, A., & Yashin, A. (2020). Repurposing of existing vaccines for personalized prevention of Alzheimer’s disease: Vaccination against pneumonia may reduce AD risk depending on genotype. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 16(S3), e046751. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.046751

[21]. Tyas, S. (1996). Are tobacco and alcohol use related to Alzheimer’s disease? A critical assessment of the evidence and its implications. Addiction Biology, 1(3), 237–254. https://doi.org/10.1080/1355621961000124856

[22]. Nianogo, R. A., Rosenwohl-Mack, A., Yaffe, K., Carrasco, A., Hoffmann, C. M., & Barnes, D. E. (2022). Risk Factors Associated With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in the US. JAMA Neurology, 79(6), 584–591. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2022.0976

[23]. Abdi, H. (n.d.). Partial Least Square Regression PLS-Regression.

[24]. Matthews, S. A., & Yang, T.-C. (2012). Mapping the results of local statistics: Using geographically weighted regression. Demographic Research, 26, 151–166. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.6

[25]. Byrne, G., Charlton, M., & Fotheringham, S. (n.d.). Multiple Dependent Hypothesis Tests in Geographically Weighted Regression.

[26]. Stevens, J. A., & Sogolow, E. D. (2005). Gender differences for non-fatal unintentional fall related injuries among older adults. Injury Prevention, 11(2), 115–119. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2004.005835

[27]. Older Adult Falls Reported by State | Fall Prevention | Injury Center | CDC. (2023, February 28). https://www.cdc.gov/falls/data/falls-by-state.html

Cite this article

Guo,C. (2023). Exploring the relationship between mortality and potential risk factors in US 50 states: A population perspective using partial least squares and geographically weighted regression models. Theoretical and Natural Science,28,188-205.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Mathematical Physics and Computational Simulation

ISBN：978-1-83558-261-9(Print) / 978-1-83558-262-6(Online)
Editor：Roman Bauer
Conference website: https://www.confmpcs.org/
Conference date: 12 August 2023
Series: Theoretical and Natural Science
Volume number: Vol.28
ISSN：2753-8818(Print) / 2753-8826(Online)

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References

[1]. Ho, J. Y., & Franco, Y. (2022). The rising burden of Alzheimer’s disease mortality in rural America. SSM - Population Health, 17, 101052. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101052

[2]. Brookmeyer, R., Johnson, E., Ziegler-Graham, K., & Arrighi, H. M. (2007). Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 3(3), 186–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381

[3]. Zhang, X.-X., Tian, Y., Wang, Z.-T., Ma, Y.-H., Tan, L., & Yu, J.-T. (2021). The Epidemiology of Alzheimer’s Disease Modifiable Risk Factors and Prevention. The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease, 8(3), 313–321. https://doi.org/10.14283/jpad.2021.15

[4]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Mortality 1999-2020 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released in 2021. Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2020, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html on May 26, 2023 10:55:26 AM

[5]. A Armstrong, R. (2019). Risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease. Folia Neuropathologica, 57(2), 87–105. https://doi.org/10.5114/fn.2019.85929

[6]. Nebel, R. A., Aggarwal, N. T., Barnes, L. L., Gallagher, A., Goldstein, J. M., Kantarci, K., Mallampalli, M. P., Mormino, E. C., Scott, L., Yu, W. H., Maki, P. M., & Mielke, M. M. (2018). Understanding the impact of sex and gender in Alzheimer’s disease: A call to action. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 14(9), 1171–1183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2018.04.008

[7]. Baumgart, M., Snyder, H. M., Carrillo, M. C., Fazio, S., Kim, H., & Johns, H. (2015). Summary of the evidence on modifiable risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia: A population-based perspective. Alzheimer’s & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association, 11(6), 718–726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2015.05.016

[8]. Rovio, S., Kåreholt, I., Helkala, E.-L., Viitanen, M., Winblad, B., Tuomilehto, J., Soininen, H., Nissinen, A., & Kivipelto, M. (2005). Leisure-time physical activity at midlife and the risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. The Lancet Neurology, 4(11), 705–711. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-4422(05)70198-8

[9]. Novais, F., & Starkstein, S. (2015). Phenomenology of Depression in Alzheimer’s Disease. Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, 47(4), 845–855. https://doi.org/10.3233/JAD-148004

[10]. Wilson, R. S., Evans, D. A., Bienias, J. L., Leon, C. F. M. de, Schneider, J. A., & Bennett, D. A. (2003). Proneness to psychological distress is associated with risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Neurology, 61(11), 1479–1485. https://doi.org/10.1212/01.WNL.0000096167.56734.59

[11]. Crous-Bou, Marta, Carolina Minguillón, Nina Gramunt, and José Luis Molinuevo. “Alzheimer’s Disease Prevention: From Risk Factors to Early Intervention.” Alzheimer’s Research & Therapy 9, no. 1 (September 12, 2017): 71. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13195-017-0297-z.

[12]. Kiyak, H. A., Teri, L., & Borson, S. (1994). Physical and Functional Health Assessment in Normal Aging and in Alzheimer’s Disease: Self-Reports vs Family Reports1. The Gerontologist, 34(3), 324–331. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/34.3.324

[13]. Oleske, D. M., Wilson, R. S., Bernard, B. A., Evans, D. A., & Terman, E. W. (1995). Epidemiology of Injury in People with Alzheimer’s Disease. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 43(7), 741–746. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1995.tb07042.x

[14]. McGeer, P. L., Schulzer, M., & McGeer, E. G. (1996). Arthritis and anti-inflammatory agents as possible protective factors for Alzheimer’s disease: A review of 17 epidemiologic studies. Neurology, 47(2), 425–432. https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.47.2.425

[15]. Peter-Derex, L., Yammine, P., Bastuji, H., & Croisile, B. (2015). Sleep and Alzheimer’s disease. Sleep Medicine Reviews, 19, 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smrv.2014.03.007

[16]. Ribeiro, G. R., Costa, J. L. R., Bovi Ambrosano, G. M., & Rodrigues Garcia, R. C. M. (2012). Oral health of the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease. Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology and Oral Radiology, 114(3), 338–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oooo.2012.03.028

[17]. Zanetti, O., Bianchetti, A., Frisoni, G. B., Rozzini, R., & Trabucchi, M. (1993). Determinants of disability in alzheimer’s disease. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 8(7), 581–586. https://doi.org/10.1002/gps.930080709

[18]. Verreault, R., Laurin, D., Lindsay, J., & Serres, G. D. (2001). Past exposure to vaccines and subsequent risk of Alzheimer’s disease. CMAJ, 165(11), 1495–1498.

[19]. Lv, G., Wang, X., Jiang, X., Li, M., & Lu, K. (2022). Impact of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias on colorectal cancer screening utilization, knowledge, and associated health disparities. Frontiers in Pharmacology, 13, 872702. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2022.872702

[20]. Ukraintseva, S., Yashkin, A., Duan, M., Akushevich, I., Arbeev, K., Wu, D., Stallard, E., Tropsha, A., & Yashin, A. (2020). Repurposing of existing vaccines for personalized prevention of Alzheimer’s disease: Vaccination against pneumonia may reduce AD risk depending on genotype. Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 16(S3), e046751. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.046751

[21]. Tyas, S. (1996). Are tobacco and alcohol use related to Alzheimer’s disease? A critical assessment of the evidence and its implications. Addiction Biology, 1(3), 237–254. https://doi.org/10.1080/1355621961000124856

[22]. Nianogo, R. A., Rosenwohl-Mack, A., Yaffe, K., Carrasco, A., Hoffmann, C. M., & Barnes, D. E. (2022). Risk Factors Associated With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in the US. JAMA Neurology, 79(6), 584–591. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2022.0976

[23]. Abdi, H. (n.d.). Partial Least Square Regression PLS-Regression.

[24]. Matthews, S. A., & Yang, T.-C. (2012). Mapping the results of local statistics: Using geographically weighted regression. Demographic Research, 26, 151–166. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.6

[25]. Byrne, G., Charlton, M., & Fotheringham, S. (n.d.). Multiple Dependent Hypothesis Tests in Geographically Weighted Regression.

[26]. Stevens, J. A., & Sogolow, E. D. (2005). Gender differences for non-fatal unintentional fall related injuries among older adults. Injury Prevention, 11(2), 115–119. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2004.005835

[27]. Older Adult Falls Reported by State | Fall Prevention | Injury Center | CDC. (2023, February 28). https://www.cdc.gov/falls/data/falls-by-state.html

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